DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-1015-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84890566897
论文题名: Robust estimates of climate-induced hydrological change in a temperate mountainous region
作者: Köplin N. ; Rößler O. ; Schädler B. ; Weingartner R.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 122, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 171
结束页码: 184
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Hydrological changes
; Mesoscale catchments
; Mountainous regions
; Natural variability
; Sampling distribution
; Sustainable water resources
; Temperature changes
; Water resources planning
; Catchments
; Information management
; Runoff
; Water conservation
; Water resources
; Climate change
; bootstrapping
; catchment
; climate effect
; future prospect
; hydrological change
; mountain region
; runoff
; temperate environment
; time series analysis
; water management
; water planning
; water resource
; Switzerland
英文摘要: A sustainable water resources management depends on sound information about the impacts of climate change. This information is, however, not easily derived because natural runoff variability interferes with the climate change signal. This study presents a procedure that leads to robust estimates of magnitude and Time Of Emergence (TOE) of climate-induced hydrological change that also account for the natural variability contained in the time series. Firstly, natural variability of 189 mesoscale catchments in Switzerland is sampled for 10 ENSEMBLES scenarios for the control (1984-2005) and two scenario periods (near future: 2025-2046, far future: 2074-2095) applying a bootstrap procedure. Then, the sampling distributions of mean monthly runoff are tested for significant differences with the Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test and for effect size with Cliff's delta d. Finally, the TOE of a climate change induced hydrological change is determined when at least eight out of the ten hydrological projections significantly differ from natural variability. The results show that the TOE occurs in the near future period except for high-elevated catchments in late summer. The significant hydrological projections in the near future correspond, however, to only minor runoff changes. In the far future, hydrological change is statistically significant and runoff changes are substantial. Temperature change is the most important factor determining hydrological change in this mountainous region. Therefore, hydrological change depends strongly on a catchment's mean elevation. Considering that the hydrological changes are predicted to be robust in the near future highlights the importance of accounting for these changes in water resources planning. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84844
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Zähringerstrasse 25, 3012 Bern, Switzerland; Institute of Geography, Hydrology Group, University of Bern, Hallerstrasse 12, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
Recommended Citation:
Köplin N.,Rößler O.,Schädler B.,et al. Robust estimates of climate-induced hydrological change in a temperate mountainous region[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,122(2018-01-02)