DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1057-8
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84902267210
论文题名: Pricing of uncertain certified emission reductions in a Chinese coal mine methane project with an extended Rubinstein-Ståhl model
作者: Xu X. ; Horabik J. ; Nahorski Z.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 124, 期: 3 起始页码: 617
结束页码: 632
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Coal mines
; Costs
; Forestry
; Probability distributions
; Bargaining model
; Certified emission reductions
; Chinese coal mine
; Coal mine methane
; Conditional distribution
; Discount factors
; Price negotiations
; Three parameters
; Methane
; coal mine
; emission control
; environmental economics
; methane
; numerical model
; price dynamics
; risk factor
; willingness to pay
; Anhui
; China
英文摘要: The development of coal mine methane (CMM) projects is subject to various kinds of risk, one of these being their highly variable methane content. In this study, a new methodology is proposed to reflect the impact of this uncertainty on a negotiated Certified Emission Reduction (CER) price, which is based on the available information. To simulate a process of price negotiation the Rubinstein-Ståhl bargaining game is utilized, where a buyer's discount factor is unknown. It is assumed that a buyer's willingness to accomplish price negotiations depends on the CER uncertainty. The bargaining model has been extended by introducing dependence of its three parameters on the probability of a failure to fulfil the contracted CER amount. To quantify this probability, we develop a conditional distribution given information on the point estimate of methane amount for the project under consideration, and on the distribution of available estimates from coal mines having similar characteristics. The proposed approach is applied to a particular CMM capture and utilization project in Anhui province, China. The results indicate that the uncertainty influence is significant, particularly when the credibility of a seller increases, i.e. the probability of a failure to fulfil the project decreases. The analysis can be of use to both negotiating parties at an early stage of a comprehensive CMM project planning. © 2014 The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84845
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing), D11 Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100083, China; Systems Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Newelska 6, 01447 Warsaw, Poland
Recommended Citation:
Xu X.,Horabik J.,Nahorski Z.. Pricing of uncertain certified emission reductions in a Chinese coal mine methane project with an extended Rubinstein-Ståhl model[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,124(3)