DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1143-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84922000395
论文题名: European participatory scenario development: strengthening the link between stories and models
作者: Kok K. ; Bärlund I. ; Flörke M. ; Holman I. ; Gramberger M. ; Sendzimir J. ; Stuch B. ; Zellmer K.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 128, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 187
结束页码: 200
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Fuzzy sets
; Iterative methods
; Linguistics
; Set theory
; Complex problems
; Linguistic terms
; Multiple iterations
; Practical issues
; Quantitative models
; Scenario development
; Story and simulations
; Three-step approach
; Fuzzy set theory
英文摘要: Scenario development methods get to grips with taking a long-term view on complex issues such as climate change through involvement of stakeholders. Many of the recent (global) scenario exercises have been structured according to a Story-and-Simulation approach. Although elaborately studied, conceptual and practical issues remain in linking qualitative stories and quantitative models. In this paper, we show how stakeholders can directly estimate model parameter values using a three-step approach called Fuzzy Set Theory. We focus on the effect of multiple iterations between stories and models. Results show that we were successful in quickly delivering stakeholder-based quantification of key model parameters, with full consistency between linguistic terms used in stories and numeric values. Yet, values changed strongly from one iteration to the next. A minimum of two and preferably at least three iterations is needed to harmonise stories and models. We conclude that the application of Fuzzy Set Theory enabled a highly valuable, structured and reproducible process to increase consistency between stories and models, but that future work is needed to show its true potential, particularly related to the effect of iterations. Additionally, the number of tools that need to be applied in a short period of time to execute a Story-And-Simulation approach introduces drawbacks that need to be studied. However, an approach such as Story-And-Simulation is indispensable and effective in marrying the perspectives of scientists and other stakeholders when studying complex systems and complex problems. © 2014, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84856
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Soil Geography and Landscape Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands; Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Magdeburg, Germany; Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Kassel, Germany; Cranfield Water Science Institute, Cranfield University, Bedford, United Kingdom; Prospex bvba, Keerbergen, Belgium; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Recommended Citation:
Kok K.,Bärlund I.,Flörke M.,et al. European participatory scenario development: strengthening the link between stories and models[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,128(2018-03-04)