DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1272-3
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84911481147
论文题名: Simulation of tropical cyclone impacts to the U.S. power system under climate change scenarios
作者: Staid A. ; Guikema S.D. ; Nateghi R. ; Quiring S.M. ; Gao M.Z.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 127, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 535
结束页码: 546
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Hurricanes
; Outages
; Risk perception
; Sensitivity analysis
; Storms
; Tropics
; Uncertainty analysis
; Changing climate
; Climate change scenarios
; Degree of uncertainty
; Extreme wind speed
; Mitigation strategy
; Tropical cyclone
; Tropical cyclone activity
; Tropical cyclone intensity
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate modeling
; hurricane
; nature-society relations
; numerical model
; risk factor
; sensitivity analysis
; tropical cyclone
; uncertainty analysis
; United States
英文摘要: The links between climate change and tropical cyclone behavior are frequently studied but still uncertain. This uncertainty makes planning for climate change a difficult task. Here we focus on one area of climate-related risk: the impact of tropical cyclones on United States power systems, and we evaluate this risk through the simulation of impacts to the power system under 12 plausible scenarios in which climate change may affect tropical cyclone intensity, frequency, and location. We use a sensitivity analysis based approached grounded in the literature rather than directly simulating from specific GCM output due to the high degree of uncertainty in both the climate models and the climate-hurricane relationship. We show how changes in tropical cyclone activity influence extreme wind speeds, probability of power outages, and the proportion of people without power. While climate change and its impacts are often discussed globally, this work provides information at a much more local scale. The sensitivity of an individual area can be assessed, and the information presented here can be incorporated into planning and mitigation strategies for power systems faced with an uncertain future in a changing climate. © 2014, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84858
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States; Department of Geography, Texas A and M University, College Station, TX, United States; Resources For the Future, Washington, DC, United States
Recommended Citation:
Staid A.,Guikema S.D.,Nateghi R.,et al. Simulation of tropical cyclone impacts to the U.S. power system under climate change scenarios[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,127(2018-03-04)