DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-1017-8
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84898048672
论文题名: Projected 21st century snowfall changes over the French Alps and related uncertainties
作者: Piazza M. ; Boé J. ; Terray L. ; Pagé C. ; Sanchez-Gomez E. ; Déqué M.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 122, 期: 4 起始页码: 583
结束页码: 594
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Greenhouse gases
; Anthropogenic forcing
; Downscaling methods
; Ecological and economic
; High resolution
; Regional climate projections
; Statistical downscaling
; Temperature changes
; Uncertainty sources
; Snow
; anthropogenic effect
; climate modeling
; downscaling
; ecological impact
; economic impact
; greenhouse gas
; mountain region
; regional climate
; snow cover
; twenty first century
; uncertainty analysis
; Alps
; France
英文摘要: Snowfall changes in mountain areas in response to anthropogenic forcing could have widespread hydrological, ecological and economic impacts. In this paper, the robustness of snowfall changes over the French Alps projected during the 21st century and the associated uncertainties are studied. In particular, the role of temperature changes on snowfall changes is investigated. Those issues are tackled through the analysis of the results of a very large ensemble of high-resolution regional climate projections, obtained either through dynamical or statistical downscaling. We find that, at the beginning and at the end of the cold season extending from November to March (included), temperature change is an important source of spread in snowfall changes. However, no link is found between temperature and snowfall changes in January and February. At the beginning and at the end of the cold season, the rate of change in snowfall per Kelvin does not depend much on the bias correction step, the period or the greenhouse gas scenario but mostly on the downscaling method and the climate models, the latter uncertainty source being dominant. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84860
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Sciences de l'Univers au CERFACS, CERFACS/CNRS, URA1875, Toulouse, France; Météo-France/CNRS, CNRM-GAME, UMR3589, Toulouse, France
Recommended Citation:
Piazza M.,Boé J.,Terray L.,et al. Projected 21st century snowfall changes over the French Alps and related uncertainties[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,122(4)