globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1105-4
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84901240752
论文题名:
Probabilistic spatial risk assessment of heat impacts and adaptations for London
作者: Jenkins K.; Hall J.; Glenis V.; Kilsby C.; McCarthy M.; Goodess C.; Smith D.; Malleson N.; Birkin M.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 124, 期:2018-01-02
起始页码: 105
结束页码: 117
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change ; Economics ; Housing ; Risk assessment ; Heat related mortality ; Heat-related mortalities ; High spatial resolution ; Impacts and adaptation ; Integrated frameworks ; Probabilistic projections ; Probabilistic Risk Assessment ; Spatial risk assessment ; Population statistics ; climate effect ; health risk ; heat island ; high temperature ; mortality ; probability ; risk assessment ; spatial analysis ; England ; London [England] ; United Kingdom
英文摘要: High temperatures and heatwaves can cause large societal impacts by increasing health risks, mortality rates, and personal discomfort. These impacts are exacerbated in cities because of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect, and the high and increasing concentrations of people, assets and economic activities. Risks from high temperatures are now widely recognised but motivation and implementation of proportionate policy responses is inhibited by inadequate quantification of the benefits of adaptation options, and associated uncertainties. This study utilises high spatial resolution probabilistic projections of urban temperatures along with projections of demographic change, to provide a probabilistic risk assessment of heat impacts on urban society. The study focuses on Greater London and the surrounding region, assessing mortality risk, thermal discomfort in residential buildings, and adaptation options within an integrated framework. Climate change is projected to increase future heat-related mortality and residential discomfort. However, adjusting the temperature response function by 1-2 °C, to simulate adaptation and acclimatisation, reduced annual heat related mortality by 32-69 % across the scenarios tested, relative to a no adaptation scenario. Similar benefits of adaptation were seen for residential discomfort. The study also highlights additional benefits in terms of reduced mortality and residential discomfort that mitigating the urban heat island, by reducing albedo and anthropogenic heat emissions, could have. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84869
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Environmental Change Institute (ECI), University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom; Met Office, Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, United Kingdom; Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norfolk, United Kingdom; LSE Cities, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, United Kingdom; School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; Environmental Change Institute (ECI), School of Geography and the Environment and Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3QY, United Kingdom

Recommended Citation:
Jenkins K.,Hall J.,Glenis V.,et al. Probabilistic spatial risk assessment of heat impacts and adaptations for London[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,124(2018-01-02)
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