DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0904-3
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84899899230
论文题名: Building SSPs for climate policy analysis: A scenario elicitation methodology to map the space of possible future challenges to mitigation and adaptation
作者: Rozenberg J. ; Guivarch C. ; Lempert R. ; Hallegatte S.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 122, 期: 3 起始页码: 509
结束页码: 522
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Climate policy
; Decision makers
; Driving forces
; Elicitation methodology
; Possible futures
; Posteriori
; Scientific community
; Socio-economics
; Climate change
英文摘要: The scientific community is now developing a new set of scenarios, referred to as Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) that will be contrasted along two axes: challenges to mitigation, and challenges to adaptation. This paper proposes a methodology to develop SSPs with a "backwards" approach based on (i) an a priori identification of potential drivers of mitigation and adaptation challenges; (ii) a modelling exercise to transform these drivers into a large set of scenarios; (iii) an a posteriori selection of a few SSPs among these scenarios using statistical cluster-finding algorithms. This backwards approach could help inform the development of SSPs to ensure the storylines focus on the driving forces most relevant to distinguishing between the SSPs. In this illustrative analysis, we find that energy sobriety, equity and convergence prove most important towards explaining future difference in challenges to adaptation and mitigation. The results also demonstrate the difficulty in finding explanatory drivers for a middle scenario (SSP2). We argue that methodologies such as that used here are useful for broad questions such as the definition of SSPs, and could also be applied to any specific decisions faced by decision-makers in the field of climate change. © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84870
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: CIRED, Nogent-sur-Marne, France; RAND, 1776 Main St., Santa Monica, CA 90407, United States; World Bank, WA DC, United States
Recommended Citation:
Rozenberg J.,Guivarch C.,Lempert R.,et al. Building SSPs for climate policy analysis: A scenario elicitation methodology to map the space of possible future challenges to mitigation and adaptation[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,122(3)