DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0951-9
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84898543746
论文题名: Harmonization vs. fragmentation: Overview of climate policy scenarios in EMF27
作者: Blanford G.J. ; Kriegler E. ; Tavoni M.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 123, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 383
结束页码: 396
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Carbon
; Greenhouse gases
; Anthropogenic carbon
; Atmospheric concentration
; Carbon emissions
; Climate policy scenarios
; Emissions abatements
; Emissions reduction
; Global emissions
; Mitigation costs
; Carbon dioxide
英文摘要: This paper synthesizes results of the multi-model Energy Modeling Forum 27 (EMF27) with a focus on climate policy scenarios. The study included two harmonized long-term climate targets of 450 ppm CO2-e (enforced in 2100) and 550 pm CO2-e (not-to-exceed) as well as two more fragmented policies based on national and regional emissions targets. Stabilizing atmospheric GHG concentrations at 450 and 550 ppm CO2-e requires a dramatic reduction of carbon emissions compared to baseline levels. Mitigation pathways for the 450 CO2-e target are largely overlapping with the 550 CO2-e pathways in the first half of the century, and the lower level is achieved through rapid reductions in atmospheric concentrations in the second half of the century aided by negative anthropogenic carbon flows. A fragmented scenario designed to extrapolate current levels of ambition into the future falls short of the emissions reductions required under the harmonized targets. In a more aggressive scenario intended to capture a break from observed levels of stringency, emissions are still somewhat higher in the second half due to unabated emissions from non-participating countries, emphasizing that a phase-out of global emissions in the long term can only be reached with full global participation. A key finding is that a large range of energy-related CO2 emissions can be compatible with a given long-term target, depending on assumptions about carbon cycle response, non-CO2 and land use CO2 emissions abatement, partly explaining the spread in mitigation costs. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84873
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), Palo Alto, CA, United States; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany; Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Milan, Italy
Recommended Citation:
Blanford G.J.,Kriegler E.,Tavoni M.. Harmonization vs. fragmentation: Overview of climate policy scenarios in EMF27[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,123(2018-03-04)