DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1174-4
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84905396601
论文题名: Predicting thermal vulnerability of stream and river ecosystems to climate change
作者: Hill R.A. ; Hawkins C.P. ; Jin J.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 125, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 399
结束页码: 412
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate models
; Decision trees
; Forecasting
; Regression analysis
; Watersheds
; Air temperature changes
; Analysis of covariances
; Appalachian mountains
; Long-wave radiation
; Predictive modeling
; Stream temperature changes
; Stream temperatures
; US Geological Survey
; Climate change
英文摘要: We use a predictive model of mean summer stream temperature to assess the vulnerability of USA streams to thermal alteration associated with climate change. The model uses air temperature and watershed features (e.g., watershed area and slope) from 569 US Geological Survey sites in the conterminous USA to predict stream temperatures. We assess the model for predicting climate-related variation in stream temperature by comparing observed and predicted historical stream temperature changes. Analysis of covariance confirms that observed and predicted changes in stream temperatures respond similarly to historical changes in air temperature. When applied to spatially-downscaled future air temperature projections (A2 emission scenario), the model predicts mean warming of 2.2 °C for the conterminous USA by 2100. Stream temperatures are most responsive to climate changes in the Cascade and Appalachian Mountains and least responsive in the southeastern USA. We then use random forests to conduct an empirical sensitivity analysis to identify those stream features most strongly associated with both observed historical and predicted future changes in summer stream temperatures. Larger changes in stream temperature are associated with warmer future air temperatures, greater air temperature changes, and larger watershed areas. Smaller changes in stream temperature are predicted for streams with high initial rates of heat loss associated with longwave radiation and evaporation, and greater base-flow index values. These models provide important insight into the potential extent of stream temperature warming at a near-continental scale and why some streams will likely be more vulnerable to climate change than others. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84877
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Watershed Sciences, Utah State University Logan, Logan, UT, 84322-5210, United States; Western Center for Monitoring and Assessment of Freshwater Ecosystems, Utah State University, Logan, UT, 84322-5210, United States; The Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, UT, 84322-5205, United States; Department of Plants, Soils and Climate, Utah State University, Logan, UT, 84322-4800, United States
Recommended Citation:
Hill R.A.,Hawkins C.P.,Jin J.. Predicting thermal vulnerability of stream and river ecosystems to climate change[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,125(2018-03-04)