DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1224-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84908236447
论文题名: A simple carbon cycle representation for economic and policy analyses
作者: Glotter M.J. ; Pierrehumbert R.T. ; Elliott J.W. ; Matteson N.J. ; Moyer E.J.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 126, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 319
结束页码: 335
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Carbon
; Carbon dioxide
; Climate change
; Economic analysis
; Atmospheric concentration
; Business-as-usual
; Carbon cycles
; Climate system
; Integrated assessment models
; Integrated modeling
; Policy analysis
; Slow equilibration
; Climate models
; anthropogenic source
; atmospheric chemistry
; atmospheric pollution
; carbon cycle
; climate change
; concentration (composition)
; economic analysis
; numerical model
; ocean
; policy analysis
英文摘要: Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that couple the climate system and the economy require a representation of ocean CO2 uptake to translate human-produced emissions to atmospheric concentrations and in turn to climate change. The simple linear carbon cycle representations in most IAMs are not however physical at long timescales, since ocean carbonate chemistry makes CO2 uptake highly nonlinear. No linearized representation can capture the ocean’s dual-mode behavior, with initial rapid uptake and then slow equilibration over ∽10,000 years. In a business-as-usual scenario followed by cessation of emissions, the carbon cycle in the 2007 version of the most widely used IAM, DICE (Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy), produces errors of ∽2∘C by the year 2300 and ∽6∘C by the year 3500. We suggest here a simple alternative representation that captures the relevant physics and show that it reproduces carbon uptake in several more complex models to within the inter-model spread. The scheme involves little additional complexity over the DICE model, making it a useful tool for economic and policy analyses. © 2014, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84912
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, United States; Computation Institute, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, United States; College of Computing and Digital Media, DePaul University, Chicago, IL, United States
Recommended Citation:
Glotter M.J.,Pierrehumbert R.T.,Elliott J.W.,et al. A simple carbon cycle representation for economic and policy analyses[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,126(2018-03-04)