| DOI: | 10.1007/s10584-013-0869-2
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84898546571
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| 论文题名: | Trade-offs between mitigation costs and temperature change |
| 作者: | Blanford G.; Merrick J.; Richels R.; Rose S.
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| 刊名: | Climatic Change
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| ISSN: | 0165-0009
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| EISSN: | 1573-1480
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| 出版年: | 2014
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| 卷: | 123, 期:2018-03-04 | | 起始页码: | 527
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| 结束页码: | 541
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| 语种: | 英语
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| Scopus关键词: | Atmospheric radiation
; Carbon capture
; Climate models
; Energy efficiency
; Benefit-cost analysis
; Carbon capture and storage
; Energy system transformation
; Global stabilization
; Integrated assessment models
; Mitigation strategy
; Substantial reduction
; Temperature changes
; Costs
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| 英文摘要: | This paper uses the MERGE integrated assessment model to identify the least-cost mitigation strategy for achieving a range of climate policies. Mitigation is measured in terms of GDP foregone. This is not a benefit-cost analysis. No attempt is made to calculate the reduction in damages brought about by a particular policy. Assumptions are varied regarding the availability of energy-producing and energy-using technologies. We find pathways with substantial reductions in temperature change, with the cost of reductions varying significantly, depending on policy and technology assumptions. The set of scenarios elucidates the potential energy system transformation demands that could be placed on society. We find that policy that allows for "overshoot" of a radiative forcing target during the century results in lower costs, but also a higher temperature at the end of the century. We explore the implications of the costs and availability of key mitigation technologies, including carbon capture and storage (CCS), bioenergy, and their combination, known as BECS, as well as nuclear and energy efficiency. The role of "negative emissions" via BECS in particular is examined. Finally, we demonstrate the implications of nationally adopted emissions timetables based on articulated goals as a counterpoint to a global stabilization approach. © 2013 The Author(s). |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84915
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: | Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Blanford G.,Merrick J.,Richels R.,et al. Trade-offs between mitigation costs and temperature change[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,123(2018-03-04)
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