DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1160-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84945954973
论文题名: Addressing sources of uncertainty in runoff projections for a data scarce catchment in the Ecuadorian Andes
作者: Exbrayat J.-F. ; Buytaert W. ; Timbe E. ; Windhorst D. ; Breuer L.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 125, 期: 2 起始页码: 221
结束页码: 235
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Catchments
; Climate change
; Digital storage
; Hydrology
; Isomers
; Runoff
; Climate change impact
; Future climate projections
; General circulation model
; High-resolution datasets
; Hydrological modeling
; Relative uncertainty
; Sources of uncertainty
; Structural differences
; Climate models
; calibration
; catchment
; climate change
; data set
; emission
; general circulation model
; headwater
; hydrological cycle
; rainfall-runoff modeling
; runoff
; uncertainty analysis
; Andes
; Ecuador
英文摘要: Future climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs) predict an acceleration of the global hydrological cycle throughout the 21st century in response to human-induced rise in temperatures. However, projections of GCMs are too coarse in resolution to be used in local studies of climate change impacts. To cope with this problem, downscaling methods have been developed that transform climate projections into high resolution datasets to drive impact models such as rainfall-runoffmodels. Generally, the range of changes simulated by different GCMs is considered to be the major source of variability in the results of such studies. However, the cascade of uncertainty in runoffprojections is further elongated by differences between impact models, especially where robust calibration is hampered by the scarcity of data. Here, we address the relative importance of these different sources of uncertainty in a poorly monitored headwater catchment of the Ecuadorian Andes. Therefore, we force 7 hydrological models with downscaled outputs of 8 GCMs driven by the A1B and A2 emission scenarios over the 21st century. Results indicate a likely increase in annual runoffby 2100 with a large variability between the different combinations of a climate model with a hydrological model. Differences between GCM projections introduce a gradually increasing relative uncertainty throughout the 21st century. Meanwhile, structural differences between applied hydrological models still contribute to a third of the total uncertainty in late 21st century runoffprojections and differences between the two emission scenarios are marginal. © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84918
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: School of GeoSciences and National Centre for Earth Observation, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Civil and Environmental Engineering & Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom; Institute for Landscape Ecology and Resources Management (ILR), Research Centre for BioSystems, Land Use and Nutrition (IFZ), Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen, Gießen, Germany; Grupo de Ciencias de la Tierra y del Ambiente, DIUC, Universidad de Cuenca, Cuenca, Ecuador
Recommended Citation:
Exbrayat J.-F.,Buytaert W.,Timbe E.,et al. Addressing sources of uncertainty in runoff projections for a data scarce catchment in the Ecuadorian Andes[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,125(2)