DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0993-z
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84890551014
论文题名: Possible impacts of climate change on debris-flow activity in the Swiss Alps
作者: Stoffel M. ; Mendlik T. ; Schneuwly-Bollschweiler M. ; Gobiet A.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 122, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 141
结束页码: 155
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate scenarios
; Climatic factors
; Debris flows
; Extreme precipitation events
; Meteorological station
; Point-based
; Sediment supply
; Summer rainfall
; Catchments
; Climate change
; Rain
; Runoff
; Sediments
; Debris
; climate change
; climate effect
; data set
; debris flow
; extreme event
; hydrological regime
; precipitation intensity
; reconstruction
; Alps
; Switzerland
英文摘要: This study uses a long dataset of past debris flows from eight high-elevation catchments in the Swiss Alps for which triggering conditions since AD 1864 have been reconstructed. The torrents under investigation have unlimited sediment supply and the triggering of debris flows is thus mainly controlled by climatic factors. Based on point-based downscaled climate scenarios for meteorological stations located next to the catchments and for the periods 2001-2050 and 2051-2100, we study the evolution of temperature and rainfall above specific thresholds (10, 20, 30, 40 and 50 mm) and durations (1, 2 or 3 days). We conclude that the drier conditions in future summers and the wetting of springs, falls and early winters are likely to have significant impacts on the behavior of debris flows. Based on the current understanding of debris-flow systems and their reaction to rainfall inputs, one might expect only slight changes in the overall frequency of events by the mid-21st century, but possibly an increase in the overall magnitude of debris flows due to larger volumes of sediment delivered to the channels and an increase in extreme precipitation events. In the second half of the 21st century, the number of days with conditions favorable for the release of debris flows will likely decrease, especially in summer. The anticipated increase of rainfall during the shoulder seasons (March, April, November, December) is not expected to compensate for the decrease in future heavy summer rainfall over 2 or 3 days. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84921
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: University of Geneva, Institute for Environmental Sciences, Climatic Change and Climate Impacts, 7 route de Drize, CH-1227 Carouge, Switzerland; University of Bern, Institute of Geological Sciences, dendrolab.ch, Baltzerstrasse 13, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland; University of Graz, Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, Brandhofgasse 5, A-8010 Graz, Austria
Recommended Citation:
Stoffel M.,Mendlik T.,Schneuwly-Bollschweiler M.,et al. Possible impacts of climate change on debris-flow activity in the Swiss Alps[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,122(2018-01-02)