DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-1012-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84890555452
论文题名: Impact of anthropogenic CO2 on the next glacial cycle
作者: Herrero C. ; García-Olivares A. ; Pelegrí J.L.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 122, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 283
结束页码: 298
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Anthropogenic perturbation
; Climate change
; Future earth climate
; Glacial oscillations
; Paleoclimate
; Relaxation models
Scopus关键词: Anthropogenic perturbation
; Earth climate
; Glacial oscillations
; Paleoclimates
; Relaxation models
; Carbon
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Earth (planet)
; Glacial geology
; Incident solar radiation
; Carbon dioxide
; anthropogenic effect
; carbon dioxide
; carbon flux
; climate variation
; glacial-interglacial cycle
; glacier dynamics
; global perspective
; greenhouse effect
; insolation
; interglacial
; paleoclimate
; Antarctica
英文摘要: The model of Paillard and Parrenin (Earth Planet Sci Lett 227(3-4):263-271, 2004) has been recently optimized for the last eight glacial cycles, leading to two different relaxation models with model-data correlations between 0.8 and 0.9 (García-Olivares and Herrero (Clim Dyn 1-25, 2012b)). These two models are here used to predict the effect of an anthropogenic CO2 pulse on the evolution of atmospheric CO2, global ice volume and Antarctic ice cover during the next 300 kyr. The initial atmospheric CO2 condition is obtained after a critical data analysis that sets 1300 Gt as the most realistic carbon Ultimate Recoverable Resources (URR), with the help of a global compartmental model to determine the carbon transfer function to the atmosphere. The next 20 kyr will have an abnormally high greenhouse effect which, according to the CO2 values, will lengthen the present interglacial by some 25 to 33 kyr. This is because the perturbation of the current interglacial will lead to a delay in the future advance of the ice sheet on the Antarctic shelf, causing that the relative maximum of boreal insolation found 65 kyr after present (AP) will not affect the developing glaciation. Instead, it will be the following insolation peak, about 110 kyr AP, which will find an appropriate climatic state to trigger the next deglaciation. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84926
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Institut de Ciències del Mar, CSIC, Passeig Marítim de la Barceloneta 37-49, 08003 Barcelona, Spain; LINCGlobal, Institut de Ciències del Mar, CSIC, Passeig Marítim de la Barceloneta 37-49, 08003 Barcelona, Spain
Recommended Citation:
Herrero C.,García-Olivares A.,Pelegrí J.L.. Impact of anthropogenic CO2 on the next glacial cycle[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,122(2018-01-02)