| DOI: | 10.1007/s10584-014-1243-8
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84924375714
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| 论文题名: | Hedging the climate sensitivity risks of a temperature target |
| 作者: | Ekholm T.
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| 刊名: | Climatic Change
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| ISSN: | 0165-0009
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| EISSN: | 1573-1480
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| 出版年: | 2014
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| 卷: | 127, 期:2 | | 起始页码: | 153
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| 结束页码: | 167
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| 语种: | 英语
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| Scopus关键词: | Costs
; Investments
; Stochastic systems
; Climate sensitivity
; Cost minimization
; First-order optimality condition
; Hedging strategies
; Marginal costs
; Numerical stochastic
; Policy guidance
; Possible futures
; Risk perception
; climate change
; cost analysis
; risk assessment
; sensitivity analysis
; stochasticity
; temperature gradient
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| 英文摘要: | This paper addresses the problem of meeting a predetermined temperature target cost-effectively under uncertainty and gradual learning on climate sensitivity. The firstorder optimality conditions to a stochastic cost-minimization problem with a temperature constraint are first provided, portraying how marginal costs evolve with an optimal hedging strategy. Then, numerical stochastic scenarios with cost curves fitted to recent climate changemitigation scenarios are presented, illustrating both the range of possible future pathways and the effect of uncertainty to the solution. Last, the effect of several different sets of assumptions on the optimal hedging strategy are analyzed. The results highlight that the hedging of climate sensitivity risk calls for deeper early reductions, although the possibility of different assumptions prevents providing accurate policy guidance. © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014 |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84927
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: | VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, P.O Box 1000, Espoo, Finland
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Ekholm T.. Hedging the climate sensitivity risks of a temperature target[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,127(2)
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