| DOI: | 10.1007/s10584-013-1036-5
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84895771604
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| 论文题名: | Uncovering consistencies in Indian rainfall trends observed over the last half century |
| 作者: | Lacombe G.; McCartney M.
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| 刊名: | Climatic Change
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| ISSN: | 0165-0009
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| EISSN: | 1573-1480
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| 出版年: | 2014
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| 卷: | 123, 期:2 | | 起始页码: | 287
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| 结束页码: | 299
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| 语种: | 英语
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| Scopus关键词: | Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Food supply
; Global warming
; Atmospheric disturbance
; Atmospheric dynamics
; Cumulative rainfall
; Pre-monsoon rainfall
; Qualitative observations
; Rainfall variability
; Spatiotemporal variability
; Temporal and spatial correlation
; Rain
; anthropogenic effect
; atmospheric dynamics
; extreme event
; food security
; global warming
; homogeneity
; monsoon
; rainfall
; regional climate
; spatial variation
; temporal variation
; India
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| 英文摘要: | Food security in India is tightly linked to rainfall variability. Trends in Indian rainfall records have been extensively studied but the subject remains complicated by the high spatiotemporal variability of rainfall arising from complex atmospheric dynamics. For various reasons past studies have often produced inconsistent results. This paper presents an analysis of recent trends in monthly and seasonal cumulative rainfall depth, number of rainy days and maximum daily rainfall, and in the monsoon occurrence (onset, peak and retreat). A modified version of the Mann-Kendall test, accounting for the scaling effect, was applied to 29 variables derived from square-degree-resolution daily gridded rainfall (1951-2007). The mapping of gridded trend slopes and the regional average Kendall test were used concurrently to assess the field significance of regional trends in areas exhibiting spatial homogeneity in trend directions. The statistics we used account for temporal and spatial correlations, and thus reduce the risk of overestimating the significance of local and regional trends. Our results i/ improve available knowledge (e.g. 5 %-field-significant delay of the monsoon onset in Northern India); ii/ provide a solid statistical basis to previous qualitative observations (e.g. 1 %-field-significant increase/decrease in pre-monsoon rainfall depth in northeast/southwest India); and, iii/ when compared to recent studies, show that the field significance level of regional trends (e.g. in rainfall extremes) is test-dependent. General trend patterns were found to align well with the geography of anthropogenic atmospheric disturbances and their effect on rainfall, confirming the paramount role of global warming in recent rainfall changes. © 2014 The Author(s). |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84951
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: | Southeast Asia Regional Office, International Water Management Institute, PO Box 4199, Vientiane, Laos
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Lacombe G.,McCartney M.. Uncovering consistencies in Indian rainfall trends observed over the last half century[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,123(2)
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