DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1178-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84905395016
论文题名: Response surfaces of vulnerability to climate change: The Colorado River Basin, the High Plains, and California
作者: Foti R. ; Ramirez J.A. ; Brown T.C.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 125, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 429
结束页码: 444
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Economics
; Water supply
; Water supply systems
; Colorado River Basin
; Demand and supply
; Policy strategies
; Probabilistic framework
; Response surface
; Statistical properties
; Statistical variability
; Supply and demand
; Watersheds
英文摘要: We quantify the vulnerability of water supply to shortage for the Colorado River Basin and basins of the High Plains and California and assess the sensitivity of their water supply system to future changes in the statistical variability of supply and demand. We do so for current conditions and future socio-economic scenarios within a probabilistic framework that incorporates the inherent uncertainties in the drivers of vulnerability. Our analysis indicates that the most sensitive basins to both current and future variability of demand and supply are the Central California and the San Joaquin-Tulare basins. Large sensitivity is also found for the Kansas basin of the High Plains. Within the Colorado River Basin, the Lower Colorado and Gila were found to be the most vulnerable and sensitive sub-basins. By accounting for future uncertainty within the above probabilistic framework, this study unveils and isolates the individual responses of a given basin to changes in the statistical properties of demand and supply and offers a valuable tool for the identification of policy strategies and adaptation measures. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84966
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Rocky Mountain Research Station, U. S. Forest Service, Fort Collins, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Foti R.,Ramirez J.A.,Brown T.C.. Response surfaces of vulnerability to climate change: The Colorado River Basin, the High Plains, and California[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,125(2018-03-04)