DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1075-6
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84902291118
论文题名: Analysis of change in relative uncertainty in GHG emissions from stationary sources for the EU 15
作者: Lesiv M. ; Bun A. ; Jonas M.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 124, 期: 3 起始页码: 505
结束页码: 518
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Carbon dioxide
; Uncertainty analysis
; Emissions scenarios
; Historical changes
; National inventory report
; Possible futures
; Relative uncertainty
; Stationary sources
; Total uncertainties
; Uncertainty reduction
; Greenhouse gases
; atmospheric pollution
; carbon dioxide
; carbon emission
; European Union
; greenhouse gas
; pollutant source
; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: Total uncertainty in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions changes over time due to "learning" and structural changes in GHG emissions. Understanding the uncertainty in GHG emissions over time is very important to better communicate uncertainty and to improve the setting of emission targets in the future. This is a diagnostic study divided into two parts. The first part analyses the historical change in the total uncertainty of CO2 emissions from stationary sources that the member states estimate annually in their national inventory reports. The second part presents examples of changes in total uncertainty due to structural changes in GHG emissions considering the GAINS (Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies) emissions scenarios that are consistent with the EU's "20-20-20" targets. The estimates of total uncertainty for the year 2020 are made under assumptions that relative uncertainties of GHG emissions by sector do not change in time, and with possible future uncertainty reductions for non-CO2 emissions, which are characterized by high relative uncertainty. This diagnostic exercise shows that a driving factor of change in total uncertainty is increased knowledge of inventory processes in the past and prospective future. However, for individual countries and longer periods, structural changes in emissions could significantly influence the total uncertainty in relative terms. © 2014 The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84969
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Systems Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Newelska 6, 01-447 Warsaw, Poland; Lviv Polytechnic National University, str. Bandera 12, PO Box 5446, Lviv, 79031, Ukraine; Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1, Postbus 5048, 2628 CN Delft, Netherlands; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Recommended Citation:
Lesiv M.,Bun A.,Jonas M.. Analysis of change in relative uncertainty in GHG emissions from stationary sources for the EU 15[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,124(3)