DOI: 10.1002/2015GL063124
论文题名: Characterization of increased persistence and intensity of precipitation in the northeastern United States
作者: Guilbert J. ; Betts A.K. ; Rizzo D.M. ; Beckage B. ; Bomblies A.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8880
EISSN: 1944-8611
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 6 起始页码: 1888
结束页码: 1893
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; intense precipitation
; persistent precipitation
; precipitation
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Markov processes
; Meteorology
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Daily precipitations
; Global circulation
; Intense precipitation
; Meteorological data
; Precipitation events
; Precipitation patterns
; Precipitation variability
; Watershed hydrology
; Floods
; climate change
; climate modeling
; estimation method
; hydrological modeling
; persistence
; precipitation (climatology)
; watershed
; United States
英文摘要: We present evidence of increasing persistence in daily precipitation in the northeastern United States that suggests that global circulation changes are affecting regional precipitation patterns. Meteorological data from 222 stations in 10 northeastern states are analyzed using Markov chain parameter estimates to demonstrate that a significant mode of precipitation variability is the persistence of precipitation events. We find that the largest region-wide trend in wet persistence (i.e., the probability of precipitation in 1day and given precipitation in the preceding day) occurs in June (+0.9% probability per decade over all stations). We also find that the study region is experiencing an increase in the magnitude of high-intensity precipitation events. The largest increases in the 95th percentile of daily precipitation occurred in April with a trend of +0.7mm/d/decade. We discuss the implications of the observed precipitation signals for watershed hydrology and flood risk. Key Points Precipitation in the northeastern United States is becoming more persistent Precipitation in the northeastern United States is becoming more intense Observed trends constitute an important hydrological impact of climate change ©2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84927788638&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL063124&partnerID=40&md5=888f99e9635d93fcb990bf1133f1ee94
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8496
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: School of Engineering, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, United States
Recommended Citation:
Guilbert J.,Betts A.K.,Rizzo D.M.,et al. Characterization of increased persistence and intensity of precipitation in the northeastern United States[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(6).