DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0816-2
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84912018586
论文题名: Impact of projected climate change on hydrologic regime of the Upper Paraguay River basin
作者: Bravo J.M. ; Collischonn W. ; da Paz A.R. ; Allasia D. ; Domecq F.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 127, 期: 1 起始页码: 27
结束页码: 41
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Forecasting
; Hydraulic models
; Rivers
; Stream flow
; Time series
; Watersheds
; Climate change impact
; Climate change scenarios
; General circulation model
; Hydrological modeling
; Intergovernmental panel on climate changes
; Precipitation anomalies
; Temperature increase
; Upper paraguay river basins
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate prediction
; discharge
; evapotranspiration
; hydrological modeling
; hydrological regime
; river basin
; river flow
; streamflow
; time series
; Paraguay Basin
; South America
英文摘要: We present an assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrologic regime of the 600,000 km2 Upper Paraguay River basin, located in central South America based on predictions of 20 Atmospheric/Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). We considered two climate change scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and two 30-years time intervals centered at 2030 and 2070. Projected temperature and precipitation anomalies estimated by the AOGCMs for the study site are spatially downscaled. Time series of projected temperature and precipitation were estimated using the delta change approach. These time series were used as input to a detailed coupled hydrologic-hydraulic model aiming to estimate projected streamflow in climate change scenarios at several control points in the basin. Results show that impacts on streamflow are highly dependent on the AOGCM used to obtain the climate predictions. Patterns of temperature increase persist over the entire year for almost all AOGCMs resulting in an increase in the evapotranspiration rate of the hydrological model. The precipitation anomalies show large dispersion, being projected as either an increase or decrease in precipitation rates. Based on these inputs, results from the coupled hydrologic-hydraulic model show nearly one half of projections as increasing river discharge, and other half as decreasing river discharge. If the mean or median of the predictions is considered, no discernible change in river discharge should be expected, despite the dispersion among results of the AOGCMs that reached +/−10 % in the short horizon and +/− 20 % in the long horizon, at several control points. © 2013, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84977
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Instituto de Pesquisas Hidráulicas, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Av. Bento Gonçalves, 9500, Caixa postal 15029, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil; Depto de Engenharia Civil e Ambiental, Universidade Federal da Paraíba (UFPB), Campus Universitário I, João Pessoa, PB, Brazil; Depto de Hidráulica e Saneamento, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Av. Roraima, 1000, Santa Maria, RS, Brazil
Recommended Citation:
Bravo J.M.,Collischonn W.,da Paz A.R.,et al. Impact of projected climate change on hydrologic regime of the Upper Paraguay River basin[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,127(1)