DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0955-5
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84898549764
论文题名: Non-Kyoto radiative forcing in long-run greenhouse gas emissions and climate change scenarios
作者: Rose S.K. ; Richels R. ; Smith S. ; Riahi K. ; Strefler J. ; van Vuuren D.P.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 123, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 511
结束页码: 525
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Aerosols
; Air pollution
; Atmospheric radiation
; Carbon dioxide
; Global warming
; Greenhouse gases
; Carbon dioxide emissions
; Climate change scenarios
; Climate management
; Climate policy scenarios
; Fundamental models
; Integrated assessment models
; Radiative forcings
; Tropospheric ozone
; Climate models
英文摘要: Climate policies must consider radiative forcing from Kyoto greenhouse gases, as well as other forcing constituents, such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone that result from air pollutants. Non-Kyoto forcing constituents contribute negative, as well as positive forcing, and overall increases in total forcing result in increases in global average temperature. Non-Kyoto forcing modeling is a relatively new component of climate management scenarios. This paper describes and assesses current non-Kyoto radiative forcing modeling within five integrated assessment models. The study finds negative forcing from aerosols masking (offsetting) approximately 25 % of positive forcing in the near-term in reference non-climate policy projections. However, masking is projected to decline rapidly to 5-10 % by 2100 with increasing Kyoto emissions and assumed reductions in air pollution-with the later declining to as much as 50 % and 80 % below today's levels by 2050 and 2100 respectively. Together they imply declining importance of non-Kyoto forcing over time. There are however significant uncertainties and large differences across models in projected non-Kyoto emissions and forcing. A look into the modeling reveals differences in base conditions, relationships between Kyoto and non-Kyoto emissions, pollution control assumptions, and other fundamental modeling. In addition, under climate policy scenarios, we find air pollution and resulting non-Kyoto forcing reduced to levels below those produced by air pollution policies alone-e.g., China sulfur emissions fall an additional 45-85 % by 2050. None of the models actively manage non-Kyoto forcing for climate implications. Nonetheless, non-Kyoto forcing may be influencing mitigation results, including allowable carbon dioxide emissions, and further evaluation is merited. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84987
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Energy and Environmental Analysis Research Group, Electric Power Research Institute, 2000 L Street NW, Suite 805, WA, DC, 20036, United States; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, United States; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, Netherlands; Copernicus Institute, Department of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
Rose S.K.,Richels R.,Smith S.,et al. Non-Kyoto radiative forcing in long-run greenhouse gas emissions and climate change scenarios[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,123(2018-03-04)