DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1070-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84901233597
论文题名: Changes to the drivers of fire weather with a warming climate - a case study of southeast Tasmania
作者: Grose M.R. ; Fox-Hughes P. ; Harris R.M.B. ; Bindoff N.L.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 124, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 255
结束页码: 269
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Extreme conditions
; Global climate model
; Global climate system
; Natural variability
; Regional climate modeling
; Regional climate models
; Regional variability
; Tasmania , Australia
; Fires
; climate change
; climate conditions
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; foehn
; global climate
; regional climate
; simulation
; Australia
; Tasmania
英文摘要: Projected changes to the global climate system have great implications for the incidence of large infrequent fires in many regions. Here we examine the synoptic-scale and local-scale influences on the incidence of extreme fire weather days and consider projections of the large-scale mean climate to explore future fire weather projections. We focus on a case study region with periodic extreme fire dangers; southeast Tasmania, Australia. We compare the performance of a dynamically downscaled regional climate model with Global Climate Model outputs as a tool for examining the local-scale influences while accounting for high regional variability. Many of the worst fires in Tasmania and the southeast Australian region are associated with deep cold fronts and strong prefrontal winds. The downscaled simulations reproduce this synoptic type with greater fidelity than a typical global climate model. The incidence of systems in this category is projected to increase through the century under a high emission scenario, driven mainly by an increase in the temperature of air masses, with little change in the strength of the systems. The regional climate model projected increase in frequency is smaller than for the global climate models used as input, with a large model range and natural variability. We also demonstrate how a blocking Foehn effect and topographic channelling contributed to the extreme conditions during an extreme fire weather day in Tasmania in January 2013. Effects such as these are likely to contribute to high fire danger throughout the century. Regional climate models are useful tools that enable various meteorological drivers of fire danger to be considered in projections of future fire danger. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84992
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Private Bag 80, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Australia; CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, 107-121 Station St, Aspendale, VIC, 3195, Australia; Bureau of Meteorology, Level 5, 111 Macquarie St, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Australia; ARC Centre of Excellence of Climate System Science and Institute of Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Sandy Bay, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Australia; Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR), CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, TAS, 7000, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Grose M.R.,Fox-Hughes P.,Harris R.M.B.,et al. Changes to the drivers of fire weather with a warming climate - a case study of southeast Tasmania[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,124(2018-01-02)