globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1172-6
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84905389697
论文题名:
Downscaling reveals diverse effects of anthropogenic climate warming on the potential for local environments to support malaria transmission
作者: Paaijmans K.P.; Blanford J.I.; Crane R.G.; Mann M.E.; Ning L.; Schreiber K.V.; Thomas M.B.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 125, 期:2018-03-04
起始页码: 479
结束页码: 488
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change ; Diseases ; Anthropogenic climate ; Biophysical process ; Intermediate conditions ; Local environments ; Malaria transmission ; Microclimatic conditions ; Potential impacts ; Spatial and temporal scale ; Climate models
英文摘要: The potential impact of climate warming on patterns of malaria transmission has been the subject of keen scientific and policy debate. Standard climate models (GCMs) characterize climate change at relatively coarse spatial and temporal scales. However, malaria parasites and the mosquito vectors respond to diurnal variations in conditions at very local scales. Here we bridge this gap by downscaling a series of GCMs to provide high-resolution temperature data for four different sites and show that although outputs from both the GCM and the downscaled models predict diverse but qualitatively similar effects of warming on the potential for adult mosquitoes to transmit malaria, the predicted magnitude of change differs markedly between the different model approaches. Raw GCM model outputs underestimate the effects of climate warming at both hot (3-fold) and cold (8-12 fold) extremes, and overestimate (3-fold) the change under intermediate conditions. Thus, downscaling could add important insights to the standard application of coarse-scale GCMs for biophysical processes driven strongly by local microclimatic conditions. © 2014 The Author(s).
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84993
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics and Department of Entomology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, 16802, United States; Barcelona Centre for International Health Research, CRESIB, Hospital Clínic-Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain; GeoVISTA Center, Department of Geography, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, 16802, United States; AESEDA, Department of Geography, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, 16802, United States; Department of Meteorology and Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, 16802, United States; Northeast Climate Science Center, Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts - Amherst, Amherst, MA, 01003, United States; Department of Geography, Millersville University of Pennsylvania, Millersville, PA, 17551, United States

Recommended Citation:
Paaijmans K.P.,Blanford J.I.,Crane R.G.,et al. Downscaling reveals diverse effects of anthropogenic climate warming on the potential for local environments to support malaria transmission[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,125(2018-03-04)
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