globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1176-2
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84905466657
论文题名:
Projected climate change impacts on spatial distribution of bioclimatic zones and ecoregions within the Kailash Sacred Landscape of China, India, Nepal
作者: Zomer R.J.; Trabucco A.; Metzger M.J.; Wang M.; Oli K.P.; Xu J.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 125, 期:2018-03-04
起始页码: 445
结束页码: 460
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Biodiversity ; Computer simulation ; Ecosystems ; Spatial distribution ; Climate change impact ; Earth system model ; Ecosystem services ; Emission scenario ; Geospatial model ; Impact simulation ; Potential impacts ; Sacred landscapes ; Climate change
英文摘要: Rapidly accelerating climate change in the Himalaya is projected to have major implications for montane species, ecosystems, and mountain farming and pastoral systems. A geospatial modeling approach based on a global environmental stratification is used to explore potential impacts of projected climate change on the spatial distribution of bioclimatic strata and ecoregions within the transboundary Kailash Sacred Landscape (KSL) of China, India and Nepal. Twenty-eight strata, comprising seven bioclimatic zones, were aggregated to develop an ecoregional classification of 12 ecoregions (generally defined by their potential dominant vegetation type), based upon vegetation and landcover characteristics. Projected climate change impacts were modeled by reconstructing the stratification based upon an ensemble of 19 Earth System Models (CIMP5) across four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission scenarios (i.e. 63 impact simulations), and identifying the change in spatial distribution of bioclimatic zones and ecoregions. Large and substantial shifts in bioclimatic conditions can be expected throughout the KSL area by the year 2050, within all bioclimatic zones and ecoregions. Over 76 % of the total area may shift to a different stratum, 55 % to a different bioclimatic zone, and 36.6 % to a different ecoregion. Potential impacts include upward shift in mean elevation of bioclimatic zones (357 m) and ecoregions (371 m), decreases in area of the highest elevation zones and ecoregions, large expansion of the lower tropical and sub-tropical zones and ecoregions, and the disappearance of several strata representing unique bioclimatic conditions within the KSL, with potentially high levels of biotic perturbance by 2050, and a high likelihood of major consequences for biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, conservation efforts and sustainable development policies in the region. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84994
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Key Laboratory for Plant Diversity and Biogeography of East Asia (KLPB), Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Science, Kunming, 650201 Yunnan, China; Centre for Mountain Ecosystem Studies, World Agroforestry Center (ICRAF), East and Central Asia Region, Kunming, 650201, China; IAFENT Division, Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Sassari, Italy; Department of Science for Nature and Environmental Resources (DIPNET), University of Sassari, Via De Nicola 9, 07100 Sassari, Italy; School of GeoSciences, The University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, United Kingdom; International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), GPO Box 3226, Kathmandu, Nepal

Recommended Citation:
Zomer R.J.,Trabucco A.,Metzger M.J.,et al. Projected climate change impacts on spatial distribution of bioclimatic zones and ecoregions within the Kailash Sacred Landscape of China, India, Nepal[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,125(2018-03-04)
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