DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1087-2
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84901199389
论文题名: Lake surface temperatures in a changing climate: A global sensitivity analysis
作者: Schmid M. ; Hunziker S. ; Wüest A.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 124, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 301
结束页码: 315
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Heat flux
; Surface properties
; Design and evaluations
; Equilibrium temperatures
; Global sensitivity analysis
; Lake surface temperature
; Long-wave radiation
; Meteorological variables
; Short-wave radiation
; Surface heat balance
; Lakes
; air temperature
; climate change
; climate effect
; climate forcing
; climate modeling
; global perspective
; heat balance
; lake ecosystem
; sensitivity analysis
; water temperature
英文摘要: We estimate the effects of climatic changes, as predicted by six climate models, on lake surface temperatures on a global scale, using the lake surface equilibrium temperature as a proxy. We evaluate interactions between different forcing variables, the sensitivity of lake surface temperatures to these variables, as well as differences between climate zones. Lake surface equilibrium temperatures are predicted to increase by 70 to 85 % of the increase in air temperatures. On average, air temperature is the main driver for changes in lake surface temperatures, and its effect is reduced by ~10 % by changes in other meteorological variables. However, the contribution of these other variables to the variance is ~40 % of that of air temperature, and their effects can be important at specific locations. The warming increases the importance of longwave radiation and evaporation for the lake surface heat balance compared to shortwave radiation and convective heat fluxes. We discuss the consequences of our findings for the design and evaluation of different types of studies on climate change effects on lakes. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/85000
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Surface Waters-Research and Management, Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Eawag, Seestrasse 79, CH-6047 Kastanienbaum, Switzerland; Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Institute of Geography and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Physics of Aquatic Systems Laboratory, Margaretha Kamprad Chair, EPFL, ENAC-IIE-APHYS, Lausanne, Switzerland
Recommended Citation:
Schmid M.,Hunziker S.,Wüest A.. Lake surface temperatures in a changing climate: A global sensitivity analysis[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,124(2018-01-02)