DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-1005-z
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84890550114
论文题名: Forest fire danger projections in the Mediterranean using ENSEMBLES regional climate change scenarios
作者: Bedia J. ; Herrera S. ; Camia A. ; Moreno J.M. ; Gutiérrez J.M.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 122, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 185
结束页码: 199
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Canadian forests
; Climatic gradients
; Mediterranean areas
; Multi-model ensemble
; Positive signals
; Regional climate changes
; Regional climate projections
; Transient periods
; Climate change
; Deforestation
; Fires
; climate change
; climate prediction
; forest fire
; index method
; regional climate
; risk assessment
; Climates
; Deforestation
; Fires
; Europe
; Mediterranean Region
; North Africa
英文摘要: We present future fire danger scenarios for the countries bordering the Mediterranean areas of Europe and north Africa building on a multi-model ensemble of state-of-the-art regional climate projections from the EU-funded project ENSEMBLES. Fire danger is estimated using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System and a related set of indices. To overcome some of the limitations of ENSEMBLES data for their application on the FWI System-recently highlighted in a previous study by Herrera et al. (Clim Chang 118:827-840, 2013)-we used an optimal proxy variable combination. A robust assessment of future fire danger projections is undertaken by disentangling the climate change signal from the uncertainty derived from the multi-model ensemble, unveiling a positive signal of fire danger potential over large areas of the Mediterranean. The increase in the fire danger signal is accentuated towards the latest part of the transient period, thus pointing to an elevated fire potential in the region with time. The fire-climate links under present and future conditions are further discussed building upon observed climate data and burned area records along a representative climatic gradient within the study region. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/85001
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Grupo de Meteorología, Instituto de Física de Cantabria, CSIC-Universidad de Cantabria, Avda. de los Castros, s/n, 39005 Santander, Spain; Grupo de Meteorología, Departamento Matemática Aplicada y Ciencias de la Computación, Universidad de Cantabria, Avda. de los Castros, s/n, 39005 Santander, Spain; European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra Varese, Italy; Departamento de Ciencias Ambientales, Universidad de Castilla La Mancha, Av. Carlos III s/n, 45071 Toledo, Spain
Recommended Citation:
Bedia J.,Herrera S.,Camia A.,et al. Forest fire danger projections in the Mediterranean using ENSEMBLES regional climate change scenarios[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,122(2018-01-02)