DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0948-4
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84890568775
论文题名: The global-scale impacts of climate change on water resources and flooding under new climate and socio-economic scenarios
作者: Arnell N.W. ; Lloyd-Hughes B.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 122, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 127
结束页码: 140
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Absolute number
; Flood frequency
; Preliminary assessment
; Qualitative characteristics
; Relative effects
; River flooding
; Seasonal patterns
; Socio-economics
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Floods
; Rivers
; Water resources
; adaptive management
; climate change
; climate effect
; flooding
; nature-society relations
; risk assessment
; socioeconomic conditions
; water resource
; water stress
英文摘要: This paper presents a preliminary assessment of the relative effects of rate of climate change (four Representative Concentration Pathways - RCPs), assumed future population (five Shared Socio-economic Pathways - SSPs), and pattern of climate change (19 CMIP5 climate models) on regional and global exposure to water resources stress and river flooding. Uncertainty in projected future impacts of climate change on exposure to water stress and river flooding is dominated by uncertainty in the projected spatial and seasonal pattern of change in climate. There is little clear difference in impact between RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 in 2050, and between RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 in 2080. Impacts under RCP8.5 are greater than under the other RCPs in 2050 and 2080. For a given RCP, there is a difference in the absolute numbers of people exposed to increased water resources stress or increased river flood frequency between the five SSPs. With the 'middle-of-the-road' SSP2, climate change by 2050 would increase exposure to water resources stress for between approximately 920 and 3,400 million people under the highest RCP, and increase exposure to river flood risk for between 100 and 580 million people. Under RCP2.6, exposure to increased water scarcity would be reduced in 2050 by 22-24 %, compared to impacts under the RCP8.5, and exposure to increased flood frequency would be reduced by around 16 %. The implications of climate change for actual future losses and adaptation depend not only on the numbers of people exposed to changes in risk, but also on the qualitative characteristics of future worlds as described in the different SSPs. The difference in 'actual' impact between SSPs will therefore be greater than the differences in numbers of people exposed to impact. © 2013 The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/85002
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Walker Institute for Climate System Research, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Arnell N.W.,Lloyd-Hughes B.. The global-scale impacts of climate change on water resources and flooding under new climate and socio-economic scenarios[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,122(2018-01-02)