DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1239-4
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84921905737
论文题名: Cross-sectoral impacts of climate change and socio-economic change for multiple, European land- and water-based sectors
作者: Harrison P.A. ; Dunford R. ; Savin C. ; Rounsevell M.D.A. ; Holman I.P. ; Kebede A.S. ; Stuch B.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 128, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 279
结束页码: 292
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Biodiversity
; Climate models
; Decision making
; Economic and social effects
; Economics
; Forestry
; Irrigation
; Land use
; Urban growth
; Water supply
; Adaptation strategies
; Climate change impact
; Integrated assessment models
; Irrigation water use
; Number of peoples
; Sectoral impacts
; Socio-economic change
; Urban development
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate effect
; decision making
; environmental assessment
; Gross Domestic Product
; land management
; land use change
; regional planning
; socioeconomic conditions
; urban development
; Agriculture
; Biodiversity
; E I S
; Europe
; Forests
; Seasonal Variation
; Europe
英文摘要: Understanding cross-sectoral impacts is important in developing appropriate adaptation strategies to climate change, since such insight builds the capacity of decision-makers to understand the full extent of climate change vulnerability, rather than viewing single sectors in isolation. A regional integrated assessment model that captures interactions between six sectors (agriculture, forests, biodiversity, water, coasts and urban) was used to investigate impacts resulting from a wide range of climate and socio-economic scenarios. Results show that Europe will be significantly influenced by these possible future changes with between 79 and 91 % of indicator-scenario combinations found to be statistically significantly different from the baseline. Urban development increases in most scenarios across Europe due to increases in population and sometimes GDP. This has an indirect influence on the number of people affected by a 1 in 100 year flood which increases in western and northern Europe. Changes in other land uses (intensive farming, extensive farming, forests and unmanaged land) vary depending on the scenario, but food production generally increases across Europe at the expense of forest area and unmanaged land to satisfy increasing food demand. Biodiversity vulnerability and water exploitation both increase in southern and Eastern Europe due to direct effects from climate and indirect effects from changes in land use and irrigation water use. The results highlight the importance of considering non-climatic pressures and cross-sectoral interactions to fully capture climate change impacts at the regional scale. © 2014, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/85004
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, South Parks Road, Oxford, United Kingdom; Tiamasg Foundation, Foundation, Sfintii Voievozi 6, Bucharest, Romania; School of GeoSciences, The University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Cranfield Water Science Institute, Cranfield University, Cranfield, Bedford, United Kingdom; Faculty of Engineering and the Environment, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton, United Kingdom; Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Kassel, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Harrison P.A.,Dunford R.,Savin C.,et al. Cross-sectoral impacts of climate change and socio-economic change for multiple, European land- and water-based sectors[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,128(2018-03-04)