DOI: 10.1002/2015GL063238
论文题名: The probability distribution of intense daily precipitation
作者: Cavanaugh N.R. ; Gershunov A. ; Panorska A.K. ; Kozubowski T.J.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8896
EISSN: 1944-8627
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 5 起始页码: 1560
结束页码: 1567
语种: 英语
英文关键词: extreme
; Pareto
; precipitation
; probability
; weather station
Scopus关键词: Precipitation (chemical)
; Probability
; Weather information services
; Climate variability
; Daily precipitations
; Extreme
; High frequency HF
; Pareto
; Statistical significance
; Tail structure
; Weather stations
; Probability distributions
; diurnal variation
; precipitation (climatology)
; probability
; weather station
英文摘要: The probability tail structure of over 22,000 weather stations globally is examined in order to identify the physically and mathematically consistent distribution type for modeling the probability of intense daily precipitation and extremes. Results indicate that when aggregating data annually, most locations are to be considered heavy tailed with statistical significance. When aggregating data by season, it becomes evident that the thickness of the probability tail is related to the variability in precipitation causing events and thus that the fundamental cause of precipitation volatility is weather diversity. These results have both theoretical and practical implications for the modeling of high-frequency climate variability worldwide. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84925850710&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL063238&partnerID=40&md5=28d59c7d91a227e2f36e2f651be4c68c
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8512
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Earth Science Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Cavanaugh N.R.,Gershunov A.,Panorska A.K.,et al. The probability distribution of intense daily precipitation[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(5).