DOI: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2013.12.026
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84893822253
论文题名: A probabilistic model for accidental cargo oil outflow from product tankers in a ship-ship collision
作者: Goerlandt F. ; Montewka J.
刊名: Marine Pollution Bulletin
ISSN: 0025-326X
EISSN: 1879-3363
出版年: 2014
卷: 79, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 130
结束页码: 144
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Bayesian network
; Maritime transportation
; Oil spill
; Risk assessment
; Ship-ship collision
Scopus关键词: Bayesian network
; Maritime transportation
; Oil spill
; Risk assessment
; Ship-ship collision
; Accidents
; Environment
; Models, Chemical
; Models, Statistical
; Petroleum
; Petroleum Pollution
; Risk Assessment
; Ships
; Water Pollution, Chemical
Scopus学科分类: Agricultural and Biological Sciences: Aquatic Science
; Earth and Planetary Sciences: Oceanography
; Environmental Science: Pollution
英文摘要: In risk assessment of maritime transportation, estimation of accidental oil outflow from tankers is important for assessing environmental impacts. However, there typically is limited data concerning the specific structural design and tank arrangement of ships operating in a given area. Moreover, there is uncertainty about the accident scenarios potentially emerging from ship encounters. This paper proposes a Bayesian network (BN) model for reasoning under uncertainty for the assessment of accidental cargo oil outflow in a ship-ship collision where a product tanker is struck. The BN combines a model linking impact scenarios to damage extent with a model for estimating the tank layouts based on limited information regarding the ship. The methodology for constructing the model is presented and output for two accident scenarios is shown. The discussion elaborates on the issue of model validation, both in terms of the BN and in light of the adopted uncertainty/bias-based risk perspective. © 2013 The Authors. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/85631
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建 全球变化的国际研究计划
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作者单位: Aalto University, School of Engineering, Department of Applied Mechanics, Marine Technology, Research Group on Maritime Risk and Safety, P.O. Box 15300, 00076 AALTO, Espoo, Finland
Recommended Citation:
Goerlandt F.,Montewka J.. A probabilistic model for accidental cargo oil outflow from product tankers in a ship-ship collision[J]. Marine Pollution Bulletin,2014-01-01,79(2018-01-02)