DOI: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2014.08.037
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84908644437
论文题名: A fault tree model to assess probability of contaminant discharge from shipwrecks
作者: Landquist H. ; Rosén L. ; Lindhe A. ; Norberg T. ; Hassellöv I.-M. ; Lindgren J.F. ; Dahllöf I.
刊名: Marine Pollution Bulletin
ISSN: 0025-326X
EISSN: 1879-3363
出版年: 2014
卷: 88, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 239
结束页码: 248
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Fault tree analysis
; Oil
; Risk assessment
; Shipwreck
Scopus关键词: Fault tree analysis
; Hazards
; Risk perception
; Sensitivity analysis
; Ships
; Uncertainty analysis
; Annual probabilities
; Comprehensive method
; Contaminant discharge
; Environmental risk assessment
; Hazardous substances
; Oil
; Shipwreck
; Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis
; Risk assessment
; annual variation
; decision making
; environmental impact assessment
; environmental risk
; probability
; risk assessment
; sensitivity analysis
; uncertainty analysis
; Article
; calculation
; controlled study
; decision making
; environmental factor
; environmental impact assessment
; fault tree model
; mathematical computing
; mathematical model
; probability
; quantitative analysis
; risk assessment
; risk factor
; risk management
; sensitivity analysis
; ship
; water contamination
; accident
; dangerous goods
; environment
; Monte Carlo method
; probability
; procedures
; theoretical model
; uncertainty
; dangerous goods
; Accidents
; Decision Making
; Environment
; Hazardous Substances
; Models, Theoretical
; Monte Carlo Method
; Probability
; Risk Assessment
; Ships
; Uncertainty
Scopus学科分类: Agricultural and Biological Sciences: Aquatic Science
; Earth and Planetary Sciences: Oceanography
; Environmental Science: Pollution
英文摘要: Shipwrecks on the sea floor around the world may contain hazardous substances that can cause harm to the marine environment. Today there are no comprehensive methods for environmental risk assessment of shipwrecks, and thus there is poor support for decision-making on prioritization of mitigation measures. The purpose of this study was to develop a tool for quantitative risk estimation of potentially polluting shipwrecks, and in particular an estimation of the annual probability of hazardous substance discharge. The assessment of the probability of discharge is performed using fault tree analysis, facilitating quantification of the probability with respect to a set of identified hazardous events. This approach enables a structured assessment providing transparent uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. The model facilitates quantification of risk, quantification of the uncertainties in the risk calculation and identification of parameters to be investigated further in order to obtain a more reliable risk calculation. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/85779
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建 全球变化的国际研究计划
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作者单位: Department of Shipping and Marine Technology, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden; Department of Mathematical Sciences, Chalmers University of Technology and University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden; Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Box 461, Gothenburg, Sweden
Recommended Citation:
Landquist H.,Rosén L.,Lindhe A.,et al. A fault tree model to assess probability of contaminant discharge from shipwrecks[J]. Marine Pollution Bulletin,2014-01-01,88(2018-01-02)