DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062775
论文题名: The recent global warming hiatus: What is the role of Pacific variability?
作者: Douville H. ; Voldoire A. ; Geoffroy O.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8992
EISSN: 1944-8723
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 3 起始页码: 880
结束页码: 888
语种: 英语
英文关键词: ENSO
; global warming
; hiatus
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric radiation
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Climatology
; Global warming
; Oceanography
; Surface waters
; Tropics
; ENSO
; Global climate model
; Hiatus
; Multidecadal variability
; Pacific decadal oscillation
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Surface air temperatures
; Tropical Pacific ocean
; Climate models
; air temperature
; climate modeling
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; global warming
; hiatus
; radiative forcing
; sea surface temperature
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Tropical)
英文摘要: The observed global mean surface air temperature (GMST) has not risen over the last 15years, spurring outbreaks of skepticism regarding the nature of global warming and challenging the upper range transient response of the current-generation global climate models. Recent numerical studies have, however, tempered the relevance of the observed pause in global warming by highlighting the key role of tropical Pacific internal variability. Here we first show that many climate models overestimate the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation on GMST, thereby shedding doubt on their ability to capture the tropical Pacific contribution to the hiatus. Moreover, we highlight that model results can be quite sensitive to the experimental design. We argue that overriding the surface wind stress is more suitable than nudging the sea surface temperature for controlling the tropical Pacific ocean heat uptake and, thereby, the multidecadal variability of GMST. Using the former technique, our model captures several aspects of the recent climate evolution, including the weaker slowdown of global warming over land and the transition toward a negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Yet the observed global warming is still overestimated not only over the recent 1998-2012 hiatus period but also over former decades, thereby suggesting that the model might be too sensitive to the prescribed radiative forcings. © 2015 The Authors. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84925207489&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL062775&partnerID=40&md5=02ca49db8aeb4371f043a35924949757
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8608
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: CNRM-GAME, Toulouse Cedex, France
Recommended Citation:
Douville H.,Voldoire A.,Geoffroy O.. The recent global warming hiatus: What is the role of Pacific variability?[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(3).