DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062482
论文题名: Hydrologic versus geomorphic drivers of trends in flood hazard
作者: Slater L.J. ; Singer M.B. ; Kirchner J.W.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9026
EISSN: 1944-8757
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 2 起始页码: 370
结束页码: 376
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; flood frequency
; flood hazard trends
; hazards
; morphodynamics
; streamflow
Scopus关键词: Channel capacity
; Climate change
; Flood control
; Flood insurance
; Hazards
; Stream flow
; Flood flow
; Flood frequency
; Flood hazards
; Flood management
; Major hazards
; Morphodynamics
; Nonstationary
; River channels
; Floods
; accuracy assessment
; channel flow
; estimation method
; flood frequency
; geomorphology
; river channel
; streamflow
; United States
英文摘要: Flooding is a major hazard to lives and infrastructure, but trends in flood hazard are poorly understood. The capacity of river channels to convey flood flows is typically assumed to be stationary, so changes in flood frequency are thought to be driven primarily by trends in streamflow. We have developed new methods for separately quantifying how trends in both streamflow and channel capacity have affected flood frequency at gauging sites across the United States Flood frequency was generally nonstationary, with increasing flood hazard at a statistically significant majority of sites. Changes in flood hazard driven by channel capacity were smaller, but more numerous, than those driven by streamflow. Our results demonstrate that accurately quantifying changes in flood hazard requires accounting separately for trends in both streamflow and channel capacity. They also show that channel capacity trends may have unforeseen consequences for flood management and for estimating flood insurance costs. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84923594554&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL062482&partnerID=40&md5=95dc34b48ae98d0312a3a80f25b38505
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8642
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Slater L.J.,Singer M.B.,Kirchner J.W.. Hydrologic versus geomorphic drivers of trends in flood hazard[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(2).