DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062142
论文题名: A cautionary note on the use of EESC-based regression analysis for ozone trend studies
作者: Kuttippurath J. ; Bodeker G.E. ; Roscoe H.K. ; Nair P.J.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9073
EISSN: 1944-8804
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 1 起始页码: 162
结束页码: 168
语种: 英语
英文关键词: EESC-based regression
; ozone recovery
; ozone trends
; PWLT regression
; regression analysis
Scopus关键词: Ozone
; Time series
; EESC-based regression
; Explanatory variables
; Montreal Protocols
; Ozone recovery
; Ozone trends
; PWLT regression
; Regression model
; Total column ozone
; Regression analysis
; atmospheric chemistry
; estimation method
; ozone
; polar region
; regression analysis
; stratosphere
; time series
英文摘要: Equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) construct of ozone regression models attributes ozone changes to EESC changes using a single value of the sensitivity of ozone to EESC over the whole period. Using space-based total column ozone (TCO) measurements, and a synthetic TCO time series constructed such that EESC does not fall below its late 1990s maximum, we demonstrate that the EESC-based estimates of ozone changes in the polar regions (70-90°) after 2000 may, falsely, suggest an EESC-driven increase in ozone over this period. An EESC-based regression of our synthetic "failed Montreal Protocol with constant EESC" time series suggests a positive TCO trend that is statistically significantly different from zero over 2001-2012 when, in fact, no recovery has taken place. Our analysis demonstrates that caution needs to be exercised when using explanatory variables, with a single fit coefficient, fitted to the entire data record, to interpret changes in only part of the record. Key Points Presents a thorough analysis on the EESC-based regression The EESC-based regression is inappropriate for estimating ozone trends Recommends a reinterpretation of the previous EESC-based trend estimates ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84921854209&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL062142&partnerID=40&md5=d73e56c381770bf6b0305297098f45ab
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8689
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: CNRS/LATMOS, UPMC University of Paris 06, Paris, France
Recommended Citation:
Kuttippurath J.,Bodeker G.E.,Roscoe H.K.,et al. A cautionary note on the use of EESC-based regression analysis for ozone trend studies[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(1).