DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062231
论文题名: Observed and simulated changes in Antarctic sea ice extent over the past 50 years
作者: Gagné M.-È. ; Gillett N.P. ; Fyfe J.C.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9078
EISSN: 1944-8809
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 1 起始页码: 90
结束页码: 95
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Antarctic
; modelling
; Nimbus
; NSIDC
; observations
; sea ice
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Climate models
; Models
; Sea ice
; Antarctic
; Climate model simulations
; Continuous monitoring
; Interannual variability
; Internal variability
; Nimbus
; NSIDC
; Observations
; Ice
; annual variation
; estimation method
; ice core
; polar region
; satellite imagery
; sea ice
; simulation
; Southern Ocean
英文摘要: Continuous monitoring of the polar regions by satellites has shown that sea ice extent (SIE) in the Antarctic has increased slightly since 1979. By contrast, climate model simulations including all major anthropogenic and natural climate influences simulate an average decrease in SIE since 1979. Here we take a longer view and assess the consistency of observed and simulated changes in Antarctic SIE using recently recovered satellite-based estimates of Antarctic SIE for September 1964 and May-July 1966, hence extending the current observational record from 35 to 50 years. While there is evidence of inconsistency between observed trends in Antarctic SIE and those simulated since 1979, particularly in models with realistic interannual variability, the observed trends since the mid-1960s fall within the 5-95% range of simulated trends. Thus, our results broadly support the hypothesis that the recent increase in Antarctic SIE is due to internal variability, though the reasons for the inconsistency in simulated and observed changes since 1979 remain to be determined. Key Points Early satellite records aid in assessing Antarctic sea ice extent trends Observed and simulated SIE changes over the past 50 years are consistent Over the past 30 years, the SIE changes are marginally inconsistent ©2014. The Authors. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84921884027&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL062231&partnerID=40&md5=fd0e8929dc735b988bb246fd549295fe
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8694
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Gagné M.-È.,Gillett N.P.,Fyfe J.C.. Observed and simulated changes in Antarctic sea ice extent over the past 50 years[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(1).