DOI: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2016.03.071
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84969262300
论文题名: Risk management model of winter navigation operations
作者: Valdez Banda O.A. ; Goerlandt F. ; Kuzmin V. ; Kujala P. ; Montewka J.
刊名: Marine Pollution Bulletin
ISSN: 0025-326X
EISSN: 1879-3363
出版年: 2016
卷: 108, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 242
结束页码: 262
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Accidental oil spill
; Bayesian networks
; Formal Safety Assessment
; Maritime risk management
; Maritime safety
; Winter navigation operations
Scopus关键词: Bayesian networks
; Navigation systems
; Oil spills
; Oil tankers
; Risk assessment
; Risk management
; Safety engineering
; Ships
; Waterway transportation
; Bayesian network models
; Formal safety assessment
; International maritime organizations
; Maritime safety
; Maritime traffic
; Oil tanker vessels
; Risk management models
; Winter navigation
; Marine pollution
; Bayesian analysis
; ice cover
; modeling
; navigation
; oil spill
; risk assessment
; safety
; ship motion
; winter
; oil spill
; probability
; risk assessment
; risk management
; statistical model
; winter
; Bayes theorem
; Finland
; human
; ice cover
; oil spill
; prevention and control
; sea
; season
; ship
; Sweden
; theoretical model
; Atlantic Ocean
; Baltic Sea
; Gulf of Finland
; Bayes Theorem
; Finland
; Humans
; Ice Cover
; Models, Theoretical
; Oceans and Seas
; Petroleum Pollution
; Risk Management
; Seasons
; Ships
; Sweden
Scopus学科分类: Agricultural and Biological Sciences: Aquatic Science
; Earth and Planetary Sciences: Oceanography
; Environmental Science: Pollution
英文摘要: The wintertime maritime traffic operations in the Gulf of Finland are managed through the Finnish-Swedish Winter Navigation System. This establishes the requirements and limitations for the vessels navigating when ice covers this area. During winter navigation in the Gulf of Finland, the largest risk stems from accidental ship collisions which may also trigger oil spills. In this article, a model for managing the risk of winter navigation operations is presented. The model analyses the probability of oil spills derived from collisions involving oil tanker vessels and other vessel types. The model structure is based on the steps provided in the Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and adapted into a Bayesian Network model. The results indicate that ship independent navigation and convoys are the operations with higher probability of oil spills. Minor spills are most probable, while major oil spills found very unlikely but possible. © 2016 The Authors. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/86992
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建 全球变化的国际研究计划
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作者单位: Aalto University, Department of Mechanical Engineering (Marine Technology), Research Group on Maritime Risk and Safety, Kotka Maritime Research Centre, Heikinkatu 7, Kotka, Finland; Admiral Makarov State University of Maritime and Inland Shipping, Makarov Training Centre, P.O. Box 22, Saint Petersburg, Russian Federation; Finnish Geospatial Research Institute, Geodeetinrinne 2, Masala, Finland; Gdynia Maritime University, Faculty of Navigation, Department of Transport and Logistics, 81-225, Gdynia, Poland
Recommended Citation:
Valdez Banda O.A.,Goerlandt F.,Kuzmin V.,et al. Risk management model of winter navigation operations[J]. Marine Pollution Bulletin,2016-01-01,108(2018-01-02)