DOI: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2017.09.043
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85030326148
论文题名: Expert elicitation for deriving input data for probabilistic risk assessment of shipwrecks
作者: Landquist H. ; Norrman J. ; Lindhe A. ; Norberg T. ; Hassellöv I.-M. ; Lindgren J.F. ; Rosén L.
刊名: Marine Pollution Bulletin
ISSN: 0025-326X
EISSN: 1879-3363
出版年: 2017
卷: 125, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 399
结束页码: 415
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Bayesian updating
; Expert elicitation
; SHELF
; Shipwreck risk assessment
; VRAKA
Scopus关键词: Risks
; Ships
; Bayesian updating
; Expert elicitation
; Knowledge and experience
; Marine environment
; Probabilistic Risk Assessment
; SHELF
; Site-specific information
; VRAKA
; Risk assessment
; Bayesian analysis
; environmental impact assessment
; environmental risk
; marine environment
; probability
; risk assessment
; shipping
; wreck
; human
; probability
; risk assessment
; ship
Scopus学科分类: Agricultural and Biological Sciences: Aquatic Science
; Earth and Planetary Sciences: Oceanography
; Environmental Science: Pollution
英文摘要: The necessity of having a process in place for adequate risk assessment of shipwrecks that pose a threat to the marine environment is today internationally acknowledged. However, retrieving the desired data for such a risk assessment can prove challenging. One means of addressing this problem is to make use of experts’ knowledge and experience. The purpose of this paper is therefore to present and analyse data for risk assessment of shipwrecks derived by expert elicitation. The main outcome is the experts’ estimations of (i) the generic probability of an opening in a shipwreck due to the occurrence of a number of activities and (ii) estimations of the degree to which site-specific and wreck-specific indicators affect the probability of opening. Results show that the derived information is applicable in probabilistic shipwreck risk assessment and that the VRAKA framework now contains needed information for integrating generic and site-specific information using Bayesian updating. © 2017 Elsevier Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/87364
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建 全球变化的国际研究计划
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作者单位: Department of Mechanics and Maritime Sciences, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden; Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden; Department of Mathematical Sciences, Chalmers University of Technology, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
Recommended Citation:
Landquist H.,Norrman J.,Lindhe A.,et al. Expert elicitation for deriving input data for probabilistic risk assessment of shipwrecks[J]. Marine Pollution Bulletin,2017-01-01,125(2018-01-02)