| DOI: | 10.1002/2015GL064359
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| 论文题名: | Skillful prediction of Barents Sea ice cover |
| 作者: | Onarheim I.H.; Eldevik T.; Årthun M.; Ingvaldsen R.B.; Smedsrud L.H.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-9155
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| EISSN: | 1944-8886
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| 出版年: | 2015
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| 卷: | 42, 期:13 | | 起始页码: | 5364
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| 结束页码: | 5371
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Arctic
; Barents Sea
; ocean heat transport
; predictability
; sea ice
; wind
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| Scopus关键词: | Climate change
; Forecasting
; Heat transfer
; Sea ice
; Wind
; Arctic
; Barents sea
; First principles
; Ice-ocean models
; Meridional winds
; Ocean heat transport
; Predictability
; Qualitative predictions
; Ice
; climate change
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; heat transfer
; ice cover
; ice-ocean interaction
; meridional circulation
; sea ice
; wind
; Arctic Ocean
; Barents Sea
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| 英文摘要: | A main concern of present climate change is the Arctic sea ice cover. In wintertime, its observed variability is largely carried by the Barents Sea. Here we propose and evaluate a simple quantitative and prognostic framework based on first principles and rooted in observations to predict the annual mean Barents Sea ice cover, which variance is carried by the winter ice (96%). By using observed ocean heat transport and sea ice area, the proposed framework appears skillful and explains 50% of the observed sea ice variance up to 2years in advance. The qualitative prediction of increase versus decrease in ice cover is correct 88% of the time. Model imperfections can largely be diagnosed from simultaneous meridional winds. The framework and skill are supported by a 60year simulation from a regional ice-ocean model. We particularly predict that the winter sea ice cover for 2016 will be slightly less than 2015. Key Points Propose and evaluate a framework that predicts Barents Sea ice cover Demonstrate skillful predictions from recent available observations Model imperfections can largely be diagnosed from simultaneous meridional winds. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84938213444&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL064359&partnerID=40&md5=1c449bca1efa55d4b7772b656e6de011
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8771
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| Appears in Collections: | 科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Onarheim I.H.,Eldevik T.,Årthun M.,et al. Skillful prediction of Barents Sea ice cover[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(13).
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