| DOI: | 10.1002/2015GL065391
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| 论文题名: | On solar geoengineering and climate uncertainty |
| 作者: | MacMartin D.G.; Kravitz B.; Rasch P.J.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-9181
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| EISSN: | 1944-8912
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| 出版年: | 2015
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| 卷: | 42, 期:17 | | 起始页码: | 7156
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| 结束页码: | 7161
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | geoengineering
; GeoMIP
; models
; uncertainty
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| Scopus关键词: | Atmospheric radiation
; Climate change
; Models
; Geoengineering
; GeoMIP
; Global-mean temperature
; Model inter comparisons
; Precipitation change
; Radiative forcings
; Regional differences
; uncertainty
; Climate models
; carbon dioxide
; climate change
; climate modeling
; concentration (composition)
; global climate
; precipitation (climatology)
; radiative forcing
; risk assessment
; solar radiation
; temperature
; uncertainty analysis
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| 英文摘要: | Uncertain climate system response has been raised as a concern regarding solar geoengineering. We explore the effects of geoengineering on one source of climate system uncertainty by evaluating the intermodel spread across 12 climate models participating in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison project. The model spread in simulations of climate change and the model spread in the response to solar geoengineering are not additive but rather partially cancel. That is, the model spread in regional temperature and precipitation changes is reduced with CO2 and a solar reduction, in comparison to the case with increased CO2 alone. Furthermore, differences between models in their efficacy (the relative global mean temperature effect of solar versus CO2 radiative forcing) explain most of the regional differences between models in their response to an increased CO2 concentration that is offset by a solar reduction. These conclusions are important for clarifying geoengineering risks regarding uncertainty. ©2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84943328074&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL065391&partnerID=40&md5=125f1d1ec0952ffbef1f5ed530ae279d
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8797
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| Appears in Collections: | 科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | Computing and Mathematical Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
MacMartin D.G.,Kravitz B.,Rasch P.J.. On solar geoengineering and climate uncertainty[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(17).
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