globalchange  > 科学计划与规划
DOI: 10.1002/2015GL065504
论文题名:
Impact of aerosol emission controls on future Arctic sea ice cover
作者: Gagné M.-È.; Gillett N.P.; Fyfe J.C.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9249
EISSN: 1944-8980
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期:20
起始页码: 8481
结束页码: 8488
语种: 英语
英文关键词: aerosols ; Arctic ; cryosphere ; projections ; sea ice
Scopus关键词: Aerosols ; Climate change ; Emission control ; Sea ice ; Aerosol emissions ; Arctic ; Arctic climate change ; Cryosphere ; Earth system model ; Environmental benefits ; projections ; Simulated reduction ; Ice ; aerosol ; climate change ; climate prediction ; cryosphere ; emission control ; future prospect ; ice cover ; sea ice ; warming ; Arctic Ocean
英文摘要: We examine the response of Arctic sea ice to projected aerosol and aerosol precursor emission changes under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios in simulations of the Canadian Earth System Model. The overall decrease in aerosol loading causes a warming, largest over the Arctic, which leads to an annual mean reduction in sea ice extent of approximately 1 million km2 over the 21st century in all RCP scenarios. This accounts for approximately 25% of the simulated reduction in sea ice extent in RCP 4.5, and 40% of the reduction in RCP 2.5. In RCP 4.5, the Arctic ocean is projected to become ice-free during summertime in 2045, but it does not become ice-free until 2057 in simulations with aerosol precursor emissions held fixed at 2000 values. Thus, while reductions in aerosol emissions have significant health and environmental benefits, their substantial contribution to projected Arctic climate change should not be overlooked. Key Points Projected aerosol emission reductions drive a sea ice extent decrease of about 1 million square kilometers by 2100 Aerosol changes drive 25% of the simulated sea ice extent reduction in RCP 4.5 and 40% in RCP 2.5 Aerosol reductions result in an ice-free Arctic about 10 years earlier than would otherwise occur © 2015. The Authors.
URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84946553094&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL065504&partnerID=40&md5=0beb67f1df0d1b151bbb2896d2a74c01
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8865
Appears in Collections:科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada

Recommended Citation:
Gagné M.-È.,Gillett N.P.,Fyfe J.C.. Impact of aerosol emission controls on future Arctic sea ice cover[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(20).
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