DOI: 10.1002/2015GL065602
论文题名: Short-tailed temperature distributions over North America and implications for future changes in extremes
作者: Loikith P.C. ; Neelin J.D.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9253
EISSN: 1944-8984
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 20 起始页码: 8577
结束页码: 8585
语种: 英语
英文关键词: short-tailed distributions
; temperature distributions
; temperature extremes
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Climate models
; Gaussian distribution
; Global warming
; Location
; Anthropogenic global warming
; Implications for futures
; Keypoints
; Model evaluation
; Non-Gaussian
; short-tailed distributions
; Temperature extremes
; Warm temperatures
; Temperature distribution
; anthropogenic effect
; baseline conditions
; climate modeling
; extreme event
; future prospect
; Gaussian method
; global warming
; spatial distribution
; temperature
; temperature profile
; North America
英文摘要: Some regions of North America exhibit nonnormal temperature distributions. Shorter-than-Gaussian warm tails are a special subset of these cases, with potentially meaningful implications for future changes in extreme warm temperatures under anthropogenic global warming. Locations exhibiting shorter-than-Gaussian warm tails would experience a greater increase in extreme warm temperature exceedances than a location with a Gaussian or long warm-side tail under a simple uniform warm shift in the distribution. Here we identify regions exhibiting such behavior over North America and demonstrate the effect of a simple warm shift on changes in extreme warm temperature exceedances. Some locations exceed the 95th percentile of the original distribution by greater than 40% of the time after this uniform shift. While the manner in which distributions change under global warming may be more complex than a simple shift, these results provide an observational baseline for climate model evaluation. Key Points Many locations have non-Gaussian temperature distributions Some locations have short warm-side tails Places with short tails may experience a large increase in warm extremes © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84946593209&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL065602&partnerID=40&md5=dbb7d434048e24cf6c87f9b932465fde
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8869
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Geography, Portland State University, Portland, OR, United States
Recommended Citation:
Loikith P.C.,Neelin J.D.. Short-tailed temperature distributions over North America and implications for future changes in extremes[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(20).