| DOI: | 10.1002/2015GL065923
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| 论文题名: | Blocking variability: Arctic Amplification versus Arctic Oscillation |
| 作者: | Hassanzadeh P.; Kuang Z.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-9300
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| EISSN: | 1944-9031
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| 出版年: | 2015
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| 卷: | 42, 期:20 | | 起始页码: | 8586
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| 结束页码: | 8595
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Arctic Amplification
; Arctic Oscillation
; atmospheric blocking
; climate change
; climate variability
; extreme weather
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| Scopus关键词: | Frequency response
; Arctic Oscillation
; Arctic oscillations
; Atmospheric blocking
; Climate variability
; Extreme weather
; Internal variability
; Latitudinal distribution
; Low-frequency response
; Climate change
; amplification
; Arctic Oscillation
; climate change
; climate variation
; extreme event
; future prospect
; jet stream
; latitudinal gradient
; temperature gradient
; weather forecasting
; Arctic
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| 英文摘要: | To predict future changes in blocking and the resulting weather extremes, some studies have proposed the negative phase of Arctic Oscillation (-AO) as an analogue for Arctic amplification because of similarities between their mean states: reduced midlatitude-to-pole temperature gradients and weakened, equatorward shifted jet streams. Using well-controlled modeling experiments, we show that blocking variations associated with mean state anomalies are opposite depending on whether these anomalies are driven by the internal dynamics as in AO or forced externally as in Arctic amplification. While blocking increases and its latitudinal-distribution shifts poleward in -AO, we find opposite responses when a mean state identical to the -AO mean state is externally forced. Findings suggest that the observed blocking-AO relationship is a correlation which does not imply that the -AO mean state causes increased blocking and should not be employed as a prototype for Arctic amplification. Furthermore, results urge for a careful consideration of causality before using internal variability to predict low-frequency response to external forcings. Key Points Results caution against using -AO as an analogue for Arctic amplification for blocking response Correlation between more blocking and -AO does not imply that the -AO mean state causes more blocks Blocking variations can be opposite when mean state changes are driven internally versus externally © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84946605849&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL065923&partnerID=40&md5=0b8fd9d82155e62e3e19bd0af78d4564
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8916
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| Appears in Collections: | 科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | Center for the Environment, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Hassanzadeh P.,Kuang Z.. Blocking variability: Arctic Amplification versus Arctic Oscillation[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(20).
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