| DOI: | 10.1002/2015GL063208
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| 论文题名: | Selecting climate change scenarios using impact-relevant sensitivities |
| 作者: | Vano J.A.; Kim J.B.; Rupp D.E.; Mote P.W.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-9324
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| EISSN: | 1944-9055
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| 出版年: | 2015
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| 卷: | 42, 期:13 | | 起始页码: | 5516
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| 结束页码: | 5525
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | global climate model ranking
; hydrologic modeling
; Pacific Northwest
; sensitivity analysis
; vegetation carbon modeling
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| Scopus关键词: | Carbon
; Climate change
; Ecology
; Ecosystems
; Image segmentation
; Sensitivity analysis
; Vegetation
; Water management
; Carbon models
; Climate change scenarios
; Climate scenarios
; Global climate model
; Hydrologic modeling
; Pacific Northwest
; Precipitation change
; Region of interest
; Climate models
; climate change
; climate effect
; future prospect
; global change
; hydrological modeling
; precipitation (climatology)
; streamflow
; temperature gradient
; vegetation dynamics
; Pacific Northwest
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| 英文摘要: | Climate impact studies often require the selection of a small number of climate scenarios. Ideally, a subset would have simulations that both (1) appropriately represent the range of possible futures for the variable/s most important to the impact under investigation and (2) come from global climate models (GCMs) that provide plausible results for future climate in the region of interest. We demonstrate an approach to select a subset of GCMs that incorporates both concepts and provides insights into the range of climate impacts. To represent how an ecosystem process responds to projected future changes, we methodically sample, using a simple sensitivity analysis, how an ecosystem variable responds locally to projected regional temperature and precipitation changes. We illustrate our approach in the Pacific Northwest, focusing on (a) changes in streamflow magnitudes in critical seasons for water management and (b) changes in annual vegetation carbon. Key Points Impact-relevant sensitivities are employed to customize GCM selection Isolines in ΔP-ΔT space indicate streamflow and vegetation carbon change Approach provides quick estimates of the range of impacts for future projections. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84938205225&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL063208&partnerID=40&md5=622e37f9b1f68f19b261b12ba45f35ed
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8939
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| Appears in Collections: | 科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Vano J.A.,Kim J.B.,Rupp D.E.,et al. Selecting climate change scenarios using impact-relevant sensitivities[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(13).
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