| DOI: | 10.1002/2015GL065088
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| 论文题名: | Possible seasonality in large deep-focus earthquakes |
| 作者: | Zhan Z.; Shearer P.M.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-9334
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| EISSN: | 1944-9065
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| 出版年: | 2015
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| 卷: | 42, 期:18 | | 起始页码: | 7366
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| 结束页码: | 7373
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | deep earthquake
; earthquake statistics
; seasonality
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| Scopus关键词: | Geophysics
; Deep earthquakes
; Deep-focus earthquakes
; Earthquake catalogs
; Earthquake occurrences
; Hypothesis testing
; Northern Hemispheres
; Seasonality
; Triggering mechanism
; Earthquakes
; earthquake
; hypothesis testing
; Northern Hemisphere
; prediction
; seasonality
; subduction zone
; Tonga
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| 英文摘要: | Large deep-focus earthquakes (magnitude->-7.0, depth->-500-km) have exhibited strong seasonality in their occurrence times since the beginning of global earthquake catalogs. Of 60 such events from 1900 to the present, 42 have occurred in the middle half of each year. The seasonality appears strongest in the northwest Pacific subduction zones and weakest in the Tonga region. Taken at face value, the surplus of northern hemisphere summer events is statistically significant, but due to the ex post facto hypothesis testing, the absence of seasonality in smaller deep earthquakes, and the lack of a known physical triggering mechanism, we cannot rule out that the observed seasonality is just random chance. However, we can make a testable prediction of seasonality in future large deep-focus earthquakes, which, given likely earthquake occurrence rates, should be verified or falsified within a few decades. If confirmed, deep earthquake seasonality would challenge our current understanding of deep earthquakes. © 2015 American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84945481408&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL065088&partnerID=40&md5=d49977686b8b0d42125b0b033bd6b1b0
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8949
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| Appears in Collections: | 科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, CA, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Zhan Z.,Shearer P.M.. Possible seasonality in large deep-focus earthquakes[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(18).
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