| DOI: | 10.1002/2015GL065082
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| 论文题名: | Recurving western North Pacific tropical cyclones and midlatitude predictability |
| 作者: | Aiyyer A.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-9357
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| EISSN: | 1944-9088
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| 出版年: | 2015
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| 卷: | 42, 期:18 | | 起始页码: | 7799
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| 结束页码: | 7807
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | downstream development
; extratropical transition
; predictability
; recurving
; spread
; tropical cyclone
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| Scopus关键词: | Forecasting
; Hurricanes
; Tropics
; Wave packets
; downstream development
; Extratropical transition
; predictability
; recurving
; spread
; Tropical cyclone
; Storms
; baseline conditions
; climatology
; curvature
; energy efficiency
; ensemble forecasting
; midlatitude environment
; tropical cyclone
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (North)
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| 英文摘要: | Data from an ensemble prediction system are used to examine the impact of recurving tropical cyclones on downstream midlatitude forecasts. The ensemble spread, normalized by its climatology, increases after recurvature and peaks approximately 4-5 days later. It returns to climatological levels within a week after recurvature. Initially, the spread increases around the position of the tropical storm. Subsequently, it increases after extratropical transition, and it is associated with a developing wave packet in the midlatitude storm track. The enhanced spread propagates downstream approximately at the group speed of the wave packet. These results suggest that relative to the model's baseline, recurvature-related increase in loss of forecast skill is spatially and temporally localized. Further, energy dispersion of the developing wave packet may constrain the rate at which the forecast errors propagate downstream. © 2015 American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84945217288&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL065082&partnerID=40&md5=f9261342c4629acb98728fc402915482
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8972
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| Appears in Collections: | 科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | Department of Marine Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University at Raleigh, Raleigh, NC, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Aiyyer A.. Recurving western North Pacific tropical cyclones and midlatitude predictability[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(18).
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