DOI: 10.1002/2015GL064546
论文题名: Effects of initial conditions uncertainty on regional climate variability: An analysis using a low-resolution CESM ensemble
作者: Sriver R.L. ; Forest C.E. ; Keller K.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9441
EISSN: 1944-9172
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 13 起始页码: 5468
结束页码: 5476
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change ensemble
; Earth system models
; natural climate variability
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Climatology
; Decision making
; Earth (planet)
; Risk assessment
; Risk management
; Uncertainty analysis
; Earth system model
; Equilibrium simulations
; Initial conditions
; Integrated assessment
; Internal variability
; Natural climate variabilities
; Seasonal temperature
; Uncertainty quantifications
; Climate change
; climate variation
; decision making
; ensemble forecasting
; precipitation (climatology)
; regional climate
; temperature gradient
; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: The uncertainties surrounding the initial conditions in Earth system models can considerably influence interpretations about climate trends and variability. Here we present results from a new climate change ensemble experiment using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to analyze the effect of internal variability on regional climate variables that are relevant for decision making. Each simulation is initialized from a unique and dynamically consistent model state sampled from a ∼10,000year fully coupled equilibrium simulation, which captures the internal unforced variability of the coupled Earth system. We find that internal variability has a sizeable contribution to the modeled ranges of temperature and precipitation. The effects increase for more localized regions. The ensemble exhibits skill in simulating key regional climate processes relevant to decision makers, such as seasonal temperature variability and extremes. The presented ensemble framework and results can provide useful resources for uncertainty quantification, integrated assessment, and climate risk management. Key Points We show CESM results sampling internal variability of the fully coupled system Ensemble exhibits skill in capturing temperature and precipitation statistics Work outlines a useful framework for UQ to guide impact analyses. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84938205069&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL064546&partnerID=40&md5=4e4cd9950f8899cde954081cd0216f2a
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9056
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, United States
Recommended Citation:
Sriver R.L.,Forest C.E.,Keller K.. Effects of initial conditions uncertainty on regional climate variability: An analysis using a low-resolution CESM ensemble[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(13).