| DOI: | 10.1002/2015GL064521
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| 论文题名: | Southern Hemisphere extratropical circulation: Recent trends and natural variability |
| 作者: | Thomas J.L.; Waugh D.W.; Gnanadesikan A.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-9519
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| EISSN: | 1944-9250
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| 出版年: | 2015
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| 卷: | 42, 期:13 | | 起始页码: | 5508
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| 结束页码: | 5515
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | global climate models
; natural variability
; Southern Annular Mode
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| Scopus关键词: | Carbon
; Location
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; External forcing
; Extratropical circulation
; Global climate model
; Natural variability
; Ocean circulation
; Southern Annular Mode
; Southern Hemisphere
; Climate models
; climate modeling
; extratropical environment
; global climate
; heat transfer
; jet
; oceanic circulation
; Southern Hemisphere
; westerly
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| 英文摘要: | Changes in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Southern Hemisphere (SH) westerly jet location, and magnitude are linked with changes in ocean circulation along with ocean heat and carbon uptake. Recent trends have been observed in these fields but not much is known about the natural variability. Here we aim to quantify the natural variability of the SH extratropical circulation by using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) preindustrial control model runs and compare with the observed trends in SAM, jet magnitude, and jet location. We show that trends in SAM are due partly to external forcing but are not outside the natural variability as described by these models. Trends in jet location and magnitude, however, lie outside the unforced natural variability but can be explained by a combination of natural variability and the ensemble mean forced trend. These results indicate that trends in these three diagnostics cannot be used interchangeably. Key Points Trends in SAM are within the natural variability of CMIP5 models Jet magnitude and location trends are outside natural variability of models There are differences in trends between SAM, jet location, and jet magnitude. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84938196669&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL064521&partnerID=40&md5=eaedd3054aea75f199f9b40f4f15a486
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9134
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| Appears in Collections: | 科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Thomas J.L.,Waugh D.W.,Gnanadesikan A.. Southern Hemisphere extratropical circulation: Recent trends and natural variability[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(13).
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