DOI: 10.1002/2015GL063911
论文题名: Decadal covariability of Atlantic SSTs and western Amazon dry-season hydroclimate in observations and CMIP5 simulations
作者: Fernandes K. ; Giannini A. ; Verchot L. ; Baethgen W. ; Pinedo-Vasquez M.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9542
EISSN: 1944-9273
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 16 起始页码: 6793
结束页码: 6801
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Amazon climate
; CMIP5
; decadal variability
; predictability
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate models
; Drought
; Surface waters
; Amazon climate
; Climate fluctuations
; CMIP5
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Decadal variability
; General circulation model
; Highly-correlated
; Predictability
; Oceanography
; coupling
; decadal variation
; drought
; general circulation model
; sea surface temperature
; Amazon River
英文摘要: The unusual severity and return time of the 2005 and 2010 dry-season droughts in western Amazon is attributed partly to decadal climate fluctuations and a modest drying trend. Decadal variability of western Amazon hydroclimate is highly correlated to the Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) north-south gradient (NSG). Shifts of dry and wet events frequencies are also related to the NSG phase, with a 66% chance of 3+ years of dry events per decade when NSG > 0 and 19% when NSG < 0. The western Amazon and NSG decadal covariability is well reproduced in general circulation models (GCMs) historical (HIST) and preindustrial control (PIC) experiments of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The HIST and PIC also reproduce the shifts in dry and wet events probabilities, indicating potential for decadal predictability based on GCMs. Persistence of the current NSG positive phase favors above normal frequency of western Amazon dry events in coming decades. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84941743526&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL063911&partnerID=40&md5=12949ad3973640618fafd4d5fca7952c
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9157
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Fernandes K.,Giannini A.,Verchot L.,et al. Decadal covariability of Atlantic SSTs and western Amazon dry-season hydroclimate in observations and CMIP5 simulations[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(16).