| DOI: | 10.1002/2015GL065091
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| 论文题名: | Seasonal coastal sea level prediction using a dynamical model |
| 作者: | McIntosh P.C.; Church J.A.; Miles E.R.; Ridgway K.; Spillman C.M.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-9562
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| EISSN: | 1944-9293
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| 出版年: | 2015
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| 卷: | 42, 期:16 | | 起始页码: | 6747
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| 结束页码: | 6753
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | El Niño
; ENSO
; interannual climate variability
; sea level
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| Scopus关键词: | Climatology
; Coastal engineering
; Forecasting
; Markov processes
; Canonical correlation analysis
; Coastal communities
; ENSO
; Equatorial Pacific
; Interannual climate variability
; Ocean-atmosphere models
; Physically based models
; Sea-level fluctuations
; Sea level
; annual variation
; atmospheric modeling
; canonical analysis
; coastal zone
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; Markov chain
; sea level change
; timescale
; Indian Ocean
; Pacific Ocean
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| 英文摘要: | Sea level varies on a range of time scales from tidal to decadal and centennial change. To date, little attention has been focussed on the prediction of interannual sea level anomalies. Here we demonstrate that forecasts of coastal sea level anomalies from the dynamical Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) have significant skill throughout the equatorial Pacific and along the eastern boundaries of the Pacific and Indian Oceans at lead times out to 8 months. POAMA forecasts for the western Pacific generally have greater skill than persistence, particularly at longer lead times. POAMA also has comparable or greater skill than previously published statistical forecasts from both a Markov model and canonical correlation analysis. Our results indicate the capability of physically based models to address the challenge of providing skillful forecasts of seasonal sea level fluctuations for coastal communities over a broad area and at a range of lead times. © 2015. The Authors. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84941742619&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL065091&partnerID=40&md5=626178019cb768632b4da38a98302073
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9177
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| Appears in Collections: | 科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship, Hobart, TAS, Australia
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| Recommended Citation: | |
McIntosh P.C.,Church J.A.,Miles E.R.,et al. Seasonal coastal sea level prediction using a dynamical model[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(16).
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