| 项目编号: | 1638499
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| 项目名称: | PREEVENTS: Workshop on Integrated Framework for Modeling and Prediction of Extreme Events; College Park, Maryland; Summer 2016 |
| 作者: | A. Surjalal Sharma
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| 承担单位: | University of Maryland College Park
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| 批准年: | 2016
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| 开始日期: | 2016-07-01
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| 结束日期: | 2017-10-31
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| 资助金额: | 49996
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| 资助来源: | US-NSF
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| 项目类别: | Standard Grant
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| 国家: | US
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 特色学科分类: | Geosciences - Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences
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| 英文关键词: | extreme event
; workshop
; space weather
; modeling
; prediction
; uncertainty quantification
; framework
; development
; rare event
; extreme nature
; three-day workshop
; geospace modeling
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| 英文摘要: | PREEVENTS: Workshop on Uncertainty Quantification in Forecasting Extreme Space Weather
The project is to organize and provide travel support for a three-day workshop that targets the understanding of extreme events in space weather. The extreme nature of events arises when many conditions reinforce disturbances, such as geospace storms and substorms. The identification and characterization of these conditions are essential to uncertainty quantification and to improvements in modeling and prediction. The workshop will bring together experts in geospace modeling and simulation to explore common issues in the modeling and prediction of space weather using data-driven and first-principles approaches. A primary objective will be the identification of what is needed for the development of an integrated framework for uncertainty quantification that leverages advances in the two approaches to accelerate research to improve space weather forecasting. This is an important next step that will most likely lead to innovative and synergistic approaches to developing future capabilities. An important output of the workshop will be a comprehensive report on the current state of, and future outlook for, modeling and prediction of extreme space weather events and the associated natural hazards. The workshop provides a rare and valuable opportunity to broaden the education of postdocs, graduate and undergraduate students and enable networking. The workshop will contribute to the development of a multi-disciplinary community for disaster science, which is critical to accelerate the development of a framework for extreme event prediction and mitigation.
The understanding of the statistics of rare events and their variability is critical to uncertainty quantification in space weather forecasting, and the paucity of data of extreme events requires development of new techniques. The nonlinear coupling among the different multiphysical processes underlying extreme events, and the incomplete knowledge of the underlying processes themselves, are among the main sources of uncertainty in first principles models. An essential step to improving forecasts of extreme space weather is uncertainty quantification, which is inherently interdisciplinary, requiring a comprehensive effort that brings together disciplinary researchers, computational scientists, modelers, and statisticians. The workshop provides a forum for identifying and exploring important synergisms in forecasting extreme events in space weather and its outcomes can impact extreme events forecasting in general. |
| 资源类型: | 项目
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/91988
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| Appears in Collections: | 全球变化的国际研究计划
科学计划与规划
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| Recommended Citation: | |
A. Surjalal Sharma. PREEVENTS: Workshop on Integrated Framework for Modeling and Prediction of Extreme Events; College Park, Maryland; Summer 2016. 2016-01-01.
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